The power struggle within the dominant party of Ethiopia’s ruling coalition brings into focus the most daunting task facing Addis Ababa since the downfall of the military government some ten years ago.
Last week’s murder of the Security Chief and the recent detention of two prominent human rights activists for allegedly inciting student riots in which up to 41 people were killed and hundreds wounded, seems cause for fear — not of further deterioration but of a recurrence of another cycle of violence. That recurrence would set back all positive democratic initiatives that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s government has undertaken.
The dissidents within the the prime minister’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have opposed his political and economic reforms. The opposition reached a climax in March when 12 hard-line members of the ruling TPLF central committee were expelled. The expulsion was one factor paving the way to last month’s student riots and political troubles.
The Ethiopian people still remember the consequences of the 1974 student uprising. While discontent simmered for years, it came to a boil in 1974 as a result of uncontrolled inflation and unemployment plus a famine that killed an estimated 200,000 people between 1972 and 1974. During that time university and secondary school students staged demonstrations supporting both economic and educational reforms. The demonstrations led to violent clashes with police and mass student detentions. These led in turn to a mutiny by some army units which had been worn out after years of fighting in Eritrea and the Somali-inhabited region of eastern Ethiopia.
Student demonstrations continued to cause turmoil and made the country impossible to govern. The army then dismissed Ethiopia’s imperial government which had its roots in the legend that the emperor descended directly from King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba. This legend dominated both Ethiopian history and government. Nonetheless, on Sept. 12, 1974, the Emperor Haile Selassie was deposed and replaced by a provisional military government.
Thus the question to be asked today is: What steps can the government take to prevent a recurrence of those events? In fact, many analysts in the region believe that the Tigray dissidents are suspicious of some government supporters of Eritrean origin. The hard-liners have opposed Zenawi’s stance on Eritrea with which Ethiopia fought a border war between 1998 and 2000. A peace plan was finally signed in December of 2000. Many Ethiopians have been unhappy about Eritrean independence since May 24, 1993. One Ethiopian writer noted recently: “We have made ourselves a landlocked country. We are probably the only nation in history which has dismantled our navy and sold it at auction.” This government policy angered some Marxist Tigray dissidents who opposed an economic policy of selling state property to private entrepreneurs.
Nevertheless, the prime minister’s supporters view the privatization of state-owned enterprises as a significant step toward a culture of tolerance and democracy. There are those who insist that the prime minister will necessarily advocate a policy of reconciliation within his party. He must also combat corruption in his party by new measures to uphold accountability. Such measures are seen as one way of fostering closer ties among Ethiopia’s diverse and widely separated populations and seccession-minded ethnic groups. That was what Zenawi pledged in May 1991: to work for a special kind of unity in diversity and democracy. Any other option would be unacceptable.
