KARACHI, 10 August — Apart from the traditional hype that is associated with the celebration of the country’s independence day, Aug. 14, the occasion this time has acquired historic significance. It marks the launching of a drastic change in Pakistan’s governance at the municipal level and will finally determine the validity or otherwise of the present military intervention.
Expectations about some new developments have also been raised by reports that President Pervez Musharraf will make some important announcements on the day, most likely about his plans for the restoration of parliamentary democracy before October next year. Already, newspapers have announced that they will not observe holiday on Tuesday at the government’s request so as to cover the important events of the independence day for their issues the next morning. Otherwise, no newspapers appear on Aug. 15.
The great event of the day, of course, will be the setting up of the local governments after the runoff elections on Wednesday for mayors in districts where they did not get more than 50 percent votes in the polls held last week.
But the results that have emerged in these local elections are sure to have an impact on the complexion of the new order that the military government has visualized and they might disrupt the strategy devised earlier for the ultimate transfer of power to elected representatives next year, as directed by the Supreme Court. Essentially, the elections of mayors (nazims) of towns and cities have brought forth familiar faces from the major political parties and influential local families.
This is blatantly in defiance of the desire of the Musharraf government. At the same time that it had sought to reduce the authority and appeal of the parties led by former Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, the very logic for the new system was to nurture a new and politically neutral leadership.
That is why the elections were held on a non-party basis and, technically, candidates belonging to political parties can be disqualified, even after the elections. But the elections saw informal alliances of political groups and in spite of the camouflage, the entire exercise had a transparent political dimension.
Observers have noted that the Pakistan People’s Party of Benazir has demonstrated extensive support in the interior of Sindh and has done quite well in other parts of the country. The Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif was split and though the group that is seen to be close to the present government has won many victories, the Nawaz faction has also shown its impressive presence.
Even with these potentially unsavory results for the establishment, there have been reports that it interfered in the choice of candidates in some cities and had favorite candidates. Observers noted that once again, the Pakistani establishment proved itself incompetent in correctly predicting the outcome of an electoral exercise.
Against this backdrop, the fundamental challenge for the military regime is to manage the transition to a democratic order through next year’s general elections that are manifestly free and fair. Pakistan’s history shows how devastating it can be for the country when a military regime is not fully able to manage a transition to democratic order.
Gen. Zia-ul Haq clung to power for more than a decade also because the party he had ousted from power remained a viable option for the people.
Musharraf has repeatedly said that he would not allow the two former prime ministers, who are both in exile, to return to power. Unlike the Muslim League, there was no division in the People’s Party and it is guided entirely by its leader from abroad.
In a press conference in Lahore on Tuesday, former Chief of the Army Staff, Gen. (retired) Aslam Beg urged the politicians to develop a consensus for providing a safe exit to Musharraf. He said that the absence of such a consensus would make things difficult for the nation.
Beg, who has formed his own political party, expressed his fears about the weakening of the two main political parties and said that this would not augur well for the future of democracy in the country.
In that sense, the need for Musharraf to make some contacts with the political leadership is becoming more pronounced and some observers feel that he may indicate this initiative in his Aug. 14 pronouncements.
It would appear that Musharraf ‘s options in the developing situation are becoming more restricted. It did not help when the Agra summit with India failed to produce a joint declaration and though both countries say that the peace process is not dead, the sharp attack Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee made against the Pakistan president on Tuesday would obviously further vitiate the atmosphere.
On the domestic front, the law and order situation is bad and the economy is not picking up. In this perspective, the emergence of the political groups in the local government elections is bound to cast a shadow on the new order that will be launched on Aug. 14.
