Turkey’s Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has come up with a dramatic proposition. Turkey, he says, may annex northern Cyprus if the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus is allowed to join the European Union.
This has to be a bluff. Turkey cannot afford to take such action. It would be illegal in international law with every risk of Turkey being punished by sanctions. No country could survive that. Turkey — in economic crisis, with GDP down 9 percent, the currency sliding and investors fleeing — dare not even contemplate such an outcome.
There may have been a technical justification for its 1974 invasion of northern Cyprus — it was one of the guarantors of Cypriot independence and communal stability, both of which were at risk following the July coup that year by supporters of union with Greece. But Turkey’s continued military presence and the establishment of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus have been condemned by the UN. No country, other than Turkey itself, recognizes the TRNC. The result is that it is an economic disaster zone. Many, if not most, of the indigenous Turks have left, mainly for London, their place taken by Anatolian peasants shipped in by Ankara. Isolated, subject to sanctions and bereft of investment, the place has sunk back into penury and obscurity — unlike the south which flourishes.
So why this saber rattling from Bulent Ecevit?
His own character may be part of it. This veteran of Turkish politics is no longer the left-wing firebrand he once was, he still tends to shoot occasionally from the hip.
However, the issue of Cyprus’ bid to join the EU worries far more Turks than just Ecevit. The fear is that it will put a block on Turkey’s own application. For 20 years, Turkey has been knocking on the door of Europe. Time and again, it has been rebuffed on various grounds. Economic backwardness, human rights abuses, corruption have all been cited; and, of course, Greece played its part in those rejections.
Times have changed, however. Athens now supports Turkish entry while Ankara continues to improve human rights.
But if the Republic of Cyprus joins before Turkey’s membership is agreed — and 2004 is the year set for its accession — it will be back to square one. There will be a voice inside the EU blocking Turkish entry. That is Ankara’s fear.
Thus Ecevit feels he has to put the brakes on Cypriot membership until at least Turkey’s application is approved. But saber rattling is not the answer. Everyone can see that he dare not carry out his threat. Given that, and the fact that Cyprus will almost certainly be an EU member in just three years’ time, the better alternative must be to push for a settlement of the Cyprus problem now. Ankara’s involvement in northern Cyprus has already cost it billions of dollars. A resolution of the problem would both free it of an albatross round its neck and ease its own path to EU membership. Additionally, it would achieve the very laudable goal of enabling northern Cyprus to at last catch up with the south.
The international plaudits that would result from that will be massive — as would be the political and economic consequences.
