US Secretary of State Colin Powell has at long last unveiled the Bush administration’s ideas on what the US can do to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and make peace in the Middle East a reality.
In outlining the plans, there was much in Powell’s language that is highly encouraging. His talk about the right of the Palestinians to an independent state, his condemnation of the settlements policy, his insistence that Israel accept resolutions 242 and 228, and his perceptive observation that too many Palestinians had grown up with "checkpoints, raids and indignities" all suggest a real shift in underlying assumptions and attitudes in Washington. For the US secretary of state to use the word "occupation", not once but several times, is new and heartening to hear. But if the words are right, the same cannot be said for the actions.
The dispatch of negotiators and a fresh diplomatic mission to the Middle East will achieve nothing, no matter how good the intentions. The problem is Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
He is determined not to make any concessions. Behind-the-scenes negotiations with American diplomats will suit him down to the ground. They provide him with the perfect opportunity to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes. He can stall and prevaricate while pretending he is hard at work on the peace process and that it is moving forward. The one body that could force him to make concessions — Israeli public opinion — will not be confronted with the truth of the situation.
The only way that concessions can be wrung from him is by the US being seen — and seen in public — to be piling on the pressure. The only way that will happen is through public statements made at the highest level in Washington. President Bush has to be personally involved. It cannot be left to negotiators. He has to be seen waiving the big stick, making it plain that Washington will not tolerate Sharon’s delays and inaction any longer. If Bush did that, Sharon would be obliged to respond. Should he then refuse to budge, the Labor party, with whom deals could be done, can be relied upon to precipitate an election they would expect to win. The Israeli public may be fearful of change — something Sharon has exploited to the hilt. But there is one thing they fear even more: the loss of their most important military, political and economic prop — the US. They would turn against Sharon if he put it at risk.
That is not to say that there is no role for envoys and negotiators. Their task is to iron out the details. But at the moment, the work that needs to be done is on the big picture: Palestinian independence. That is something the Palestinians themselves need to understand. They have allowed themselves to be sidetracked into talking details — issues like airports, how long is the runway, how many planes can land there — not about the core issue of independence, from which all other answers will flow. There is no point arguing about the details if that big picture is still unresolved. Unfortunately, Powell’s program, encouraging though it is in demonstrating a shift in attitude, does not provide any hope that the big picture will be addressed. Only Bush’s active involvement can assure that.
