TOKYO, 2 June — The recent high profile diplomatic activities including telephone calls and statements made by key world leaders calling on Pakistan to stop “cross-border terrorism” amount to diplomatic success for the Indians. Especially given that the Indian diplomats know that this kind of pressure could have been brought on Pakistan may be only through the passage of a UN Security Council resolution. But New Delhi would not have sought UN Council intervention because India remains committed to not taking the Kashmir issue anywhere near the UN — the very world body whose resolution provides legitimacy to the Kashmiri and the Pakistani case calling for granting Kashmiris the right to self-determination. Hence for this very reason the Indians had opted not to invoke Resolution 1373 which was passed after Sept. 11 seeking support from all countries to dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism in Afghanistan.
The mounting international pressure will no doubt spur Islamabad into some kind of action. India has already responded coolly to Islamabad’s reiteration that its territory would not be used for terrorism abroad.
The unlikely “mediator” Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi conveyed to Pakistan the Indian demand that a similar statement to the one made during Musharraf’s Jan. 12 speech regarding no use of Pakistani territory for terrorism be made, Pakistan made a statement after its May 23 Cabinet and National Security Council meeting that its territory would not be allowed to be used for terrorism even in the name of Kashmir. But this evoked no reaction from Delhi.
Subsequently in his nationally televised speech on May 27 Musharraf reiterated his commitment to dialogue, but said Pakistan would give a befitting reply in case war was thrust on it. He also repeated Pakistan’s moral, political and diplomatic support to the Kashmiris’ freedom struggle.
The speech evoked negative reaction from India with Jaswant Singh calling it “dangerous and disappointing.” This reaction notwithstanding indications are that a meeting between Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee in Almaty may be on the cards. The mediators this time around are the Russians and to some extent the Iranians.
With Musharraf’s engagement with the international community and Delhi’s concern, it may be difficult for Vajpayee to completely dismiss the international call for a dialogue with Pakistan. Although India has said Vajpayee will not meet Musharraf in Almaty.
If they meet, Musharraf-Vajpayee meeting will only be useful if the agenda focuses on linking the two issues that are of primary concern to the two countries. For India it is cross-border infiltration and for Pakistan it is the right to self-determination for the people of Kashmir. Without this linkage no Musharraf-Vajpayee meeting can contribute toward initiating a process that will genuinely address the core issue that has been the source of perpetual hostility between the two neighbors — the Kashmir issue.
As the international community is deeply engaged in trying to end the standoff, it will unlikely withdraw without achieving some kind of a breakthrough. One that will take care of the problem holistically. The issue of cross-border infiltration is intricately linked to the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. For any genuine intervention aimed at positively improving the situation three aspects of the problem have to be simultaneously addressed. Firstly, that there is a problem of cross-border infiltration, secondly that the unresolved Kashmir problem will keep India and Pakistan at loggerheads and at the brink of war and finally that the groups that sprang during the nineties to support the armed struggle in Indian-occupied Kashmir are not under the control of the Musharraf government — as was Indira Gandhi unable to control the activities of Punjab leader Bhindrawaley whom she herself created; as the US could not control the Contras after creating them in Nicaragua and as Islamabad was unable to control the MQM after creating it.
These three elements must be taken into account if any a genuine India-Pakistan dialogue is to be initiated.
India and the international community must recognize that any cooperation at this stage by the Kashmiris and Pakistanis can only be sustained against the backdrop of a genuine dialogue aimed at a just and principled settlement of the Kashmir dispute in accordance with the wishes of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Merely keeping Pakistan under pressure will not work. In the past too it has not worked.
India must commit to some quid pro quo committing itself to a dialogue on Kashmir. Otherwise tensions against the backdrop of heightened guerrilla activity in Indian Kashmir will return to haunt the Indians, Pakistanis, Kashmiris and the international community.
