The Israel Defense Forces has a plan for an interim agreement with the Palestinians that would include another withdrawal and the evacuation of settlements in the West Bank and Gaza in exchange for a temporary Palestinian state and the postponement of a permanent agreement for a lengthy period time.
The plan was presented to Defense Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's two top aides at the time, Uri Shani and Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinski, but was not formally presented to Sharon, who did not hold any formal or informal discussion on it.
The plan, formulated earlier this year, was brought to the attention of Sharon's aides a number of times, the last occasion being after Operation Defensive Shield, as part of a broader plan to declare an Israeli victory in the conflict with the Palestinians and to announce a major political initiative.
The plan's formulators sought to strengthen the international legitimacy of Israel and to fashion improved security arrangements to better deal with violations of the agreement in the future. The main attraction of the plan for the Palestinians appear to be the additional withdrawal from the territories, a move that would give them full territorial contiguity in Gaza, and much larger blocs in the West Bank that would be connected by roads. This would create a "transportation contiguity," enabling Palestinians to travel through the West Bank without encountering IDF checkpoints.
The evacuation of settlements, termed "symbolic" in the document, is intended to send a message to the Israeli public, the Palestinians, and the international community that Israel is sincere about its intentions for political progress. The plan goes into detail and identifies seven isolated settlements in the West Bank that could be dismantled, including Ganim and Kadim near Jenin. In choosing which settlements to dismantle, the army took into consideration the inhabitants, proposing that at this stage, not to include settlements inhabited by extremists.
In Gaza, the plan proposes to evacuate all the settlements, including Gush Katif, Netzarim and Kfar Darom. The planners offer two alternatives for the settlements in the northern corner of the Strip - Alei Sinai and Dugit - either leaving them in place or removing them.
The IDF position, as enunciated now by Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon, is that no settlements should be evacuated right now. "Today," said Ya'alon in an interview with Ha'aretz to appear this weekend, "every evacuation under terror and violence will strengthen terror and violence. It will endanger us."
The map of the proposed deal for the West Bank, expanded the overall area under Palestinian control from 42 percent to 49.1 percent. Most of the changes would be turning Area B, now under Israeli security control, into Area A, meaning full Palestinian control.
This would create large blocs of Area A territory, without "fingers" of isolated settlements as in the current maps set in Oslo.
The planners believed that the interim deal would leave important assets in Israel's hands for future negotiations: Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley, and most of the settlements and settlers.
The IDF's professional view still opposes a fast-track timetable for a permanent agreement, preferring an interim agreement for a temporary Palestinian state that could be judged on its behavior and could resolve to fulfill agreements over time.
But now, the army also prefers to wait for the American assault on Iraq, the decline of Yasser Arafat's control over the PA and the construction of the separation fence. A successful American operation in Iraq, the army believes, will result in a pro-Western regime in Baghdad, weakening the Arab states and the Palestinians. Under such circumstances, the Palestinians are more likely to accept an Israeli proposal for a long-term interim agreement.
President George W. Bush's June 24 speech, calling for the Palestinian leadership to be replaced and comprehensive reforms in the PA, is perceived by the defense establishment as a "strategic shaper." Bush proposed the establishment of a temporary Palestinian state, but did not call for an additional Israeli withdrawal in the interim stage. Bush's speech set a three-year goal for a permanent agreement and the establishment of a Palestinian state in final borders. Sharon says he accepted the "principles" of the Bush speech, which also called for an end to the Israeli occupation.
A government source said yesterday that "the Sharon plan is the Bush speech, which was formulated after six meetings with the prime minister and contacts through other channels. It was clear that if we present a plan of our own, it would automatically be rejected by the Palestinians. Therefore, it's best there is an American plan. The prime minister is guided by what's best for the state and the people, and not by pressures from the left or right."
