Retired four-star General Anthony Zinni, speaking at an Oct. 10 Middle East Institute forum in Washington, cited some of the reasons why the United States should not enter into a war on Iraq unless absolutely necessary. In a list of 10 necessities for waging a successful war, Zinni described the fourth necessity for any US action as the requirement that there be no Israeli military attack.
Zinni made it clear that if the Israelis got involved militarily, all bets were off. Israeli participation would be a catastrophe for the US, Zinni said, because all of the Arab countries would then feel compelled to join into the fray, insofar as would be feasible.
The possibility that, for their own domestic purposes, the Israelis would join the battle is perhaps the single greatest dilemma facing Washington. Inevitably, moreover, Israel will exact a steep price for exercising restraint, in order to alleviate its own economic difficulties.
Israel already has too many things on its plate. It is facing security and economic issues at home and international criticism abroad.
Israel also has too many irons in the fire. First, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon hopes for an upheaval to take place if US President George W. Bush decides to attack Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. This will give Sharon a long-sought-after opportunity to try and force more Palestinians out of the occupied territories. At the same time, cooperating with Washington’s wishes will enable Sharon to make maximum gains in the form of increased US aid.
As far as the first goal — expulsion of Palestinians — is concerned, Jordan’s stance on the matter renders that highly unlikely. King Abdullah is deeply concerned and is keeping Jordanian armed forces on alert in order to forestall any such action. It, therefore, seems unlikely that Sharon will be able to realize his fondest hopes in that regard. The second goal — increased US aid in exchange for cooperation — is, therefore, the more practical approach. It is also arguably the most urgent.
Israel’s economy is now mired in its worst recession in 25 years, thanks to the two-year-old Palestinian intifada and a slump in Israel’s key hi-tech industries. Foreign investment and tourism have collapsed. The shekel loses value by the month, unemployment has risen to 10 percent, and small businesses suffer because people are reluctant to wander through the malls for fear of suicide bombings.
Last month Uzi Dayan, chairman of Israel’s National Security Council, told the Israeli Parliament that the intifada was costing the economy almost $3.1 billion annually, and that without an end to the violence there is little hope of reversing the financial decline.
According to Hebrew University in Jerusalem Professor Ephraim Kleiman, “Tourism revenues have halved. Foreign investment has fallen by two-thirds since the start of the intifada, although much of that drop also has to do with the bursting of the dotcom bubble... I think nothing will improve until something happens to the peace process.”
Rather than face that reality, Israel hopes to revive its economy by turning to the United States for more generous financial aid, in exchange for noninvolvement in Iraq. Adds Kleiman, “I think Sharon is just trying to exploit [the situation] to get some money. Bush wants Israel to behave more decently to the Palestinians and to keep out of a war with Iraq. Sharon wants to exact a price and guarantees for cheap loans are it.”
Israel is trying to amass a pot of up to $10 billion, hoping to receive as much as possible in the form of direct aid, rather than loan guarantees that eventually would have to be repaid. Washington already has offered a large aid package to help Israel in the event of a US strike on Iraq. The offer, according to Israeli sources, was made during Sharon’s visit to Washington in mid-October.
According to a top Israeli official, “We’re basically talking about credit guarantees and soft loans to stimulate a return of foreign investment to Israel, help relaunch a string of projects and strengthen our credibility in overseas financial markets.”
More than a decade ago, the US offered Israel an enormous package of soft loans to assist in the integration of one million immigrants from the former Soviet Union. There was one condition, however: the aid could not be used in the occupied territories. Then Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir refused the offer, his government fell and he was replaced by Yitzhak Rabin, who agreed to a freeze on settlement activity. But no such freeze was implemented.
According to the Israeli daily Ha’aretz, Israel has now set up an interministerial committee headed by Sharon’s chief of staff, Dov Weissglass. The committee, which also includes officials from the Israeli Treasury and Defense ministries, will discuss how large a package to press for. It wants Washington to allow most or all of the $2.1 billion in military aid that Israel currently receives to be spent in Israel rather than in the United States. Finally, the committee wants a special aid package pledged by former US President Bill Clinton in July 2000 to be restored. The package would cover Israel’s redeployment costs in pulling out of south Lebanon. According to Ha’aretz, bureaucratic delays have held up disbursement of the package and reduced its effective value to $200 million. Israel already is by far the largest recipient of US aid in the world. Every year it receives around $1 billion in civilian aid in addition to the $2.1 billion military package.
While Sharon seeks to extract every possible concession, however, something may happen to forestall his designs. If Bush is forced into further negotiations before attacking Iraq, it is possible that no such attack will occur in the immediate future. In that case, Sharon once again may have to confront the fact that the US wants to settle the Arab-Israeli dispute once and for all. That is the possibility Sharon fears most.
Many Israelis already feel that Sharon’s actions are destroying any opportunity to make peace with the Palestinians on the basis of the favorable conditions offered by the Arab League. These include an Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders in exchange for peace and diplomatic recognition by most or all League members.
It is crucial that Washington not weaken its stance in this regard. If the Israelis prevail and get even a significant portion of their $10 billion pie, there will be no peace in our time. This will be the next major challenge for the Bush administration — and the sooner the burning issue of Israel-Palestine is addressed, the better.
— Richard H. Curtiss is the executive editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.
