Arabs are highly appreciative of the stand taken by France, Germany, Russia and now Belgium against Washington’s proposed attack on Iraq. There is as a result a great deal of goodwill toward the four. Likewise there is a great deal of indignation at the vitriol being flung at them by the Bush administration, notably by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. To compare Germany to Cuba and Libya because, like them, it will not jump to Washington’s commands, is preposterous. To call it and France “Old Europe” was a deliberate insult. To ridicule Belgium because it has had the audacity to join them in blocking NATO defense equipment being shipped to Turkey is downright offensive. This is megaphone diplomacy spiked with petulance. These countries have a right to disagree with the US.
The contempt that the Americans have poured on the Franco-German plan to avoid war speaks volumes: they fear that they are about to be cheated of the chance to smash Saddam Hussein. Even though the plan — now endorsed by the Russians — was clearly made up on the hoof, with the Paris and Berlin in some confusion as to what it actually contained, that does not make it any less valuable a contribution at this eleventh hour. More arms inspectors and possibly the deployment of UN peacekeepers, even peace enforcers and a no-fly zone over all Iraq are all good ideas. They provide a practical and enforceable alternative to war as a way to keep Iraq firmly under control. What is more, they pile the pressure on Baghdad to comply — and it is doing just that. It is being forced into concessions. It has just agreed to allow U2 surveillance flights over the country and there is every reason to believe that with more pressure, other concessions will follow.
The decision by France, Germany and Belgium to block the supply of NATO equipment to Turkey, which fears a possible attack by Iraq, is altogether different and a serious mistake at that. Coming after their high-profile resistance to Turkey’s bid to join the EU, it is bound to fuel suspicions that France and Germany are inherently anti-Turkish. As to their argument that making preparations to defend Turkey could undermine diplomatic efforts to avert a war, it is unconvincing. The GCC agreed to send forces to similarly defend Kuwait in the event of a war; no one suggests that undermines efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Had the NATO matter been quietly approved, the world would have paid no attention whatsoever. The reality is that France, Germany and Belgium acted as they did purely to spite the US. That is politics — a case of giving as good as they get. But they should not have used Turkey as a weapon. The Turks have responded with commendable diplomatic composure, but by their invoking of Article IV of the organization’s charter, which no member has done before, it is clear they are furious.
Matters are getting out of hand. Divisions — deep divisions — are breaking out all over the place, not just between Europe and the US, but within Europe, with the French, Germans and Belgians on one side and most of the other Europeans on America’s. Add to this the threat that NATO could split, of the UN becoming an irrelevance, and it is clear that unless some sanity breaks out quickly, this crisis is going to have disastrous consequences well beyond the Middle East.
