Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash would seem to have made a serious mistake in not bringing to an end 28 years of partition when he had the chance, with the sympathetic former Greek Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides. Now Clerides has been ousted by Greek Cypriot voters in favor of the hard-line Tassos Papadopoulos, and a reunification deal is once more remote.
Though Papadopoulos has said he is eager to take up where his predecessor left off, the fact is that during the election he made no secret of his distaste for what he described as the generous concessions that Clerides seemed prepared to make. A deal foundered ostensibly because Denktash wanted to limit the rights of Greeks to return to their former properties in the northern part of the island, from which they fled when the Turkish Army entered in 1974.
Papadopoulos rejected out of hand a UN proposal that not all Greek Cypriot property be returned, demanding complete restitution. He is unlikely to moderate this position, given his strong mandate of 51.5 percent of the votes, against the 38.8 percent gained by Clerides.
Time would seem to be on the president-elect’s side. The UN has stipulated that unless agreement is reached by Feb. 28, in just seven days’ time, the Greek Cypriot part of the island will go on alone to join the European Union, while Denktash and the Turkish Cypriots in the north will be left out in the cold.
It is highly likely that had Denktash not prevaricated and reached an agreement, Clerides would have won the election, and the delicate business of putting reunion into effect could have been relatively painless. As things now stand, Papadopoulos, who has always taken an anti-Turkish line, is going to drive a far harder bargain. This is an unmitigated tragedy for all Cypriots and, by extension, for Turkey, whose government has been unstinting in pressuring Denktash to reach a settlement. The ramifications of the veteran politician’s failure will go far beyond the island. They will affect Turkey’s own bid for EU membership and could renew the antagonism between Greece and Turkey.
Denktash never wanted a deal. Few Turkish Cypriots, however, support him. And to ignore the long-term interests of the people he is supposed to represent is perhaps his greatest mistake. A settlement with Clerides would have involved sacrifices on the part of both communities, but probably more so for the Turkish Cypriots. There were, however, constitutional guarantees that ought to have afforded both communities protection from each other.
All this is now in ruins. Denktash can only argue from a position of weakness. Ankara is exasperated with him, as is the UN and a significant proportion of his own people. A wound that could at last have been healed has now been torn wide open by a politician whose political outlook is clearly mired in the distant past.
The UN is working very hard to patch up some sort of an agreement, but the initiative has slipped from its grasp. Papadopoulos doesn’t need a deal; the Turkish Cypriots do. Were any settlement now to emerge, it is likely to be on terms far less favorable than those proffered by Clerides. A magnificent opportunity for reconciliation has been thrown away, and for what?
