SYDNEY, 1 April 2003 — The United States and its allies have probably already lost the political war over Iraq, one of Australia’s most respected defense experts said yesterday. Professor Des Ball, of Canberra’s Australian National University (ANU), said instead of putting an end to terrorism, US/UK forces would have effectively strengthened Al-Qaeda and other terrorist networks by the end of the war.
Ball, a specialist in intelligence and defense studies at the ANU’s Strategic and Defense Studies Center, predicted that US/UK forces would be successful in capturing or killing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and toppling his regime.
But he said the war would diminish the security of the US, Australia and other allies. “The coalition has very likely already lost this war,” said Ball. “Saddam and his regime will go but the coalition’s other war aims, I believe, are in tatters.”
He said it did not seem likely that US/UK forces would find any substantial quantities of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. “At least of the source that will persuade world public opinion that their removal was worth the price,” he said.
“Even if chemical weapons are used in the defense of Baghdad that will be seen ... as a more legitimate means of last-ditch self-defense rather than evidence of any offensive capabilities of being any worse than coalition air and missile bombardments.”
Ball also warned that US/UK forces would fail to produce evidence of links between terrorist network Al-Qaeda and Iraq that would satisfy world opinion.
“Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups will be strengthened by the war, in Iraq itself as well as around the rest of the world,” he said.
“Most importantly, the aim of liberating the Iraqi people from the despotic Saddam regime has now probably been foreclosed.
“The coalition faces defeat in the sense that it’s likely to emerge from this war with its global interests more threatened, its strategic standing in the world more challenged and its security, the security of the United States and its allies, ultimately diminished.
“It would take a brave person to argue that the security of the world is going to end up being enhanced by this war.”
Ball said the coalition’s strategy of shock and awe and its focus on the Iraqi leadership had failed.
Meanwhile, New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark said yesterday a suicide bombing in Iraq which killed four US soldiers represented a worrying trend which will create difficulties for coalition forces. “It wouldn’t be a novel observation to say it doesn’t appear to be going to plan,” she told a press conference.
New Zealand has so far refused to join the US-led forces, preferring to back a United Nation’s-led effort.
Clark said war gaming ahead of the conflict had anticipated less resistance. The supply lines were vulnerable and more troops had to go in.
She said one of the government’s key concerns had been that the war would act as a catalyst for the recruitment of young, bitter, frustrated and angry people in the Middle East. “That is of considerable concern,” she said.
“Certainly the suicide bombing of the American troops is a new development, and I would think poses considerable difficulties for the occupation of Iraq because with suicide bombings, every civilian in effect becomes a suspected belligerent and you’re dealing with quite a different circumstance. That is a worrying trend.”
