Who are the biggest winners and losers from the war in Iraq?
The biggest winner is, by far, the Iraqi people, now liberated from the worst regime in its contemporary history. The biggest loser, of course, is the Baathist gang that had brutalized Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Without the forcible toppling of his regime, Saddam, who will turn 66 next week if he is still alive, could have remained in power for another two decades. Judging by what he did in the previous two decades of his rule one shudders at the thought of what he might have done in the next 20 years or so.
All the champions of the idea that the Arabs deserve only dictatorial and brutal regimes share Saddam’s loss.
Also among the losers are other dictators who now know that, with the Cold War ended, there is no Soviet Union to rush to save them at the last moment. A trend has started in Iraq that is certain to continue until all the remaining dictatorial regimes are thrown into the dustbin of history.
The camp of the losers also includes France and Russia, and, to a lesser extent, Germany, who encouraged Saddam Hussein to remain hooked to his suicidal ways until the very end. From now on no other dictator will trust them as friends capable of coming to the rescue at a difficult moment. President Jacques Chirac’s disingenuous assertion that no one had the right to change Iraq’s regime was based on the assumption that the Iraqis had chosen Saddam’s brutal dictatorship in the first place.
Fortunately there are many more winners in this war than losers. The Arab nations are rid of a regime that had not only given all Arabs a bad name but had acted as a center of conspiracy and aggression against many of them. There is not a single Arab leader today who would regret Saddam’s demise. All of Iraq’s neighbors could be included among the winners. Iran sees the end of a regime that provoked an eight-year war that claimed over a million lives. The toppling of Saddam also means the closure of anti-Iranian terrorist camps maintained by Saddam on Iraqi territory.
Turkey would be a big winner, too. As Iraq’s No.1 trading partner, Turkey is certain to play a key role in Iraqi reconstruction. At a time that the Turkish economy is in its deepest crisis for a decade, the reopening of the Iraqi market is the best piece of news Ankara’s new government could have expected.
Syria could also benefit from the new impetus that the change of regime in Iraq is certain to give to the stalled the reform movement in Damascus. Jordan, acting as Iraq’s natural outlet to the sea, is likely to benefit from its neighbor’s economic revival. Iraq will also provide the Hashemite kingdom with additional geopolitical depth.
Kuwait could also be regarded as a big winner. The next Iraqi regime is certain to take legal and political steps to relinquish all territorial claims against Kuwait. The return of confidence and stability could help propel the Kuwaiti economy, in stagnation since 1990, back into robust growth. The entire Gulf region, and beyond it the OPEC nations as a whole, will also benefit from the end of Saddam’s regime.
Saudi Arabia, too, will be among the beneficiaries of regime change in Iraq. The Baathist tyranny in Baghdad was like a time bomb that was bound to explode at some point.
In the longer run the United States and its key allies, especially the United Kingdom, must also be regarded as big winners. The common wisdom right now is that George W Bush and Tony Blair are the biggest winners from the toppling of Saddam Hussein. This is certainly true in the short-term. Both men are enjoying exceptionally high popularity in the polls. What might happen to them in the medium and long-term, however, remains to be seen. Most democracies have the strange habit of kicking out leaders who have won wars. The tradition goes back to ancient Athens, the first democracy, in which any leader who returned victorious from a war was sure to lose his job.
Think of Churchill, who was defeated in the first general election after his World War II victory. And, more recently, we had President George Bush, the father, who lost his re-election bid despite the highest-ever popularity ratings after the war to liberate Kuwait.
One of the key characteristics of democracy is the people’s ingratitude toward their leaders. It is only in a dictatorship that the people are forced to be grateful to the ruler, praising his generosity and wisdom every day. In a democracy the best compliment to pay a leader is to kick him out in the next election.
Arab News Opinion 18 April 2003
