ALKHOBAR, 8 July 2003 — Iraq is set to spend around $6.4 billion annually on information and communication technology (ICT) by 2008, according to a moderate growth rate scenario of the Iraqi economy devised by Dubai-based Madar Research Group (madarresearch.com). The projection is part of a comprehensive study on current and future ICT development of Iraq’s “knowledge economy.” The study predicts that in 2008, Iraq will witness up to triple-digit growth in areas such as mobile phone and Internet use, compared to 2002.
Madar Research Group forecasts Iraq will annually spend around eight percent of its GDP on ICT-related development projects between 2003 and 2008. This ratio, which is equivalent to world average ICT spending and much higher than that of the region, will be fueled by Iraq’s need to build an ICT infrastructure from scratch.
To quantify the resources that Iraq is predicted to spend on ICT development and consumer products, Madar Research devised a GDP growth forecast model that draws on the characteristics the Iraqi economy shares with Saudi Arabia’s, while outlining the course the Iraqi economy is likely to take under its own variables. The result was three different scenarios and levels of GDP growth that share the same rate of IT spending.
One of the parameters used in the model was Iraq’s highest and lowest points of economic performance in the last 25 years as compared with the Saudi economy. In 1979, when Iraq’s GDP was the highest, it constituted 48 percent of Saudi Arabia’s GDP at that time. In 2002, Iraq’s GDP was only 16 percent of Saudi Arabia’s.
“There are numerous internal and external political and economic factors that can shape the performance of Iraq as it joins the global economy. This is aggravated by many uncertainties which add to the complexity of predicting the country’s economic performance,” said Abdul Kader Kamli, president and research director, Madar Research Group. “However, we have built our GDP projections on the most solid components of the economy, such as oil production and other vital and promising elements. To accommodate the political-economic variables our analysis has led to three scenarios for GDP growth over the next six years. Even the low-growth scenario brings huge opportunities for ICT providers and investors.
The Iraq report, which is fully published in the Madar Research Journal, forecasts impressive annual growth rates in the number of mobile phone users; 158 percent, and Internet users; 100 percent, over the period 2002-2008. Meanwhile, the number of fixed-line subscribers and installed personal computers are expected to grow annually by 33 and 47 percent, respectively. Software and solutions, however, will not have a high turnover, and will be a low priority for Iraq if the economy recovers slowly.
While Iraq is just starting out on the long road to adequate ICT development, other Gulf countries are supposed to be making great strides in that area. I have my doubts though. This morning I checked my inbox on my ISP’s server and there I found a bunch of mail from the Dubai office of a major PR firm. The messages were filled with profanity and urged me to click on the attachments to view nasty photos of Shakira and Julia Roberts. The mails also contained text advising me that “no virus had been detected” in the messages.
Since I wasn’t suffering from an attack of stupidity at that moment, I didn’t click on any of the attachments. I deleted all the mails and sent a quick note off to the PR company informing them that their network was in desperate need of security enhancement. It’s simply amazing to me that concepts such as e-commerce and e-government are being promoted throughout the region when e-basics obviously aren’t under control.
A few weeks ago I flew over to Riyadh to meet with Alan See, CEO, e-Cop Malaysia. See was visiting the Kingdom courtesy of local IT security solution provider, IT Matrix, to promote the concept of the Secure Operating Center (SOC) to the local financial sector. E-Cop is the world’s first BS 7799 certified managed security service provider and while the company is new to the Kingdom, e-Cop is a leading information security player in Asia-Pacific, with extensive operations across that region. See’s visit to Saudi Arabia was well timed as there is increasing interest among local enterprises for network security services to be sourced from vendors headquartered in the Muslim world.
According to See, while “100 percent secure” is an impossibility for any network, Saudi enterprises could do better at managing their network security, particularly in the areas of identifying and responding to security threats. Currently, even Saudi companies with the most advanced network security systems in place tend to respond to information security threats after some sort of catastrophe is already in progress.
“In this e-age there is a need for enterprises to be aware of any developing security threats — intentional or unintentional — in real-time. Additionally, companies must respond to those threats in real-time. Right now, that’s not happening in the Kingdom even though technology exists to enable such action.” See said.
First, so no misconceptions get started, let’s take a moment to explain. Saudi enterprises do monitor their networks. Numerous network devices are spewing out event reports, messages, audit trails and logs. But what to do with all this data? It must be converted into some sort of meaningful report complete with suggested reactions to critical ongoing harmful or malicious actions in the network. That’s where there’s a big problem. In today’s complex heterogeneous network environments where multiple security technologies are in use and there is a shortage of professionals with the required skill-set to make such analyses, no individual is up to the challenge of creating the needed security reaction reports in real-time.
E-cop has developed a technology, which allows all the events and log data from multiple security and network components, to be aggregated in a large database. Next, a correlation is established within the data and the results are automatically filtered and analyzed to identify any developing threats. Finally, a visual-monitoring console provides information security personnel with the ability to investigate any suspected event or activity and then take recommendations from the system for reactions, all in real-time. This solution that is created is known as a Secure Operating Center (SOC).
“Our technology goes significantly beyond any existing security or network management incident monitoring solution in its ability to automatically analyze voluminous data from hundreds of security tools and applications and then reduce it to a handful of true security incidents requiring some form of human interaction and/or response,” See commented.
“IT Matrix and e-Cop understand the difficulties that enterprises are trying to overcome in today’s complex cyber-world,” he continued. “In the past, the majority of vendors developing such technologies were doing so to provide Managed Security Services for customers. Being aware of the sensitivities in managing the security needs in Saudi Arabia, e-Cop and IT Matrix are willing to bring this technology to customer sites, along with customization and training of clients’ information security staff. This will provide local enterprises with a real-time SOC, enabling them to cope with the complex challenge of monitoring and managing network security.”
Although e-Cop’s concept for the creation of local Secure Operating Centers is a new idea for the Kingdom’s market, See was impressed with the rapid understanding by local network managers of the potential for e-Cop’s technologies. See stated that while the first SOC would most likely be created in the Kingdom’s financial sector that there was huge potential for the use of the technology in other sectors.
E-Cop and IT Matrix are in the process of demonstrating SOC technology to both private and public sector organizations throughout Saudi Arabia. Currently there is a high level of concern focused on the network security situation in the Kingdom. Enormous sums have been invested in Saudi Arabia to create digital assets, but, unfortunately, there has been less emphasis on safeguarding that investment.
“With the difficult global security situation at hand, it is time that organizations in Saudi Arabia take firm control of their information resources,” advised Mirza Asrar Baig, CEO, IT Matrix. “Local enterprises continue to pour investment into complex information systems but have less than ideal security protecting those networks. Secure Operating Centers provide best practice methodologies and technologies to cope with an increasingly menacing online world.”
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