For the US military in Iraq, the slow drip of death seems never-ending. Almost every day, more soldiers are killed. Two more died and five others were wounded on Thursday. The resistance to the US occupation is clearly not diminishing — and the death of Saddam Husseins’s two sons has made no difference.
The question now has to be asked whether those responsible for the attacks are Baathist remnants dreaming of Saddam’s restoration or new forces out to prove their nationalist credentials and build themselves a political following. If the latter, the death or capture of Saddam himself is not going stop the slaughter; it will get worse.
There are sound reasons for believing this second scenario. Thanks to the US, the Iraqis have tasted freedom, but they want it in full — now. Far from being grateful to the US, there is sullen resentment at being occupied. Now it is being turned into simmering hate thanks to the US military’s heavy-handed tactics on the ground. Last week’s botched raid on a house in Baghdad thought to be sheltering Saddam Hussein, which resulted in five local people being shot dead by US troops, is but the latest in a line of tragic mistakes that is losing Washington the battle for Iraqi hearts and minds.
Whatever the truth of events, Iraqis increasingly choose to believe the worst of the Americans.
That will fuel the hate and result in more US soldiers being targeted. In turn, it is bound to impact on Washington’s exit strategy — not that it has one at present.
A couple of days ago, Paul Bremer, the US administrator in Iraq, said general elections could be held within a year and could allow US troops to leave early. The timing is all very indefinite. It is also highly optimistic. It took an age for the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council to decide who should be in charge, and they now have to devise a constitution before the elections. Meanwhile the killings will continue. At the present rate, some further 500 American soldiers could be dead by the time the upbeat Bremer imagines elections could be held. US public opinion will not stand for it.
Pictures of the emotional returns of the first Iraqi refugees following Saddam’s downfall, after 13 years of exile here, proclaim that it was right to overthrow the regime. But for all its military might, the US knows nothing about military occupation. No wonder Washington wants international forces in as soon as possible. But who is to say that they will not then also become targets? The only solution short of pulling out of — a disaster to be avoided at all costs — is for the new Iraqi army in formation to take over on the streets as rapidly as possible.
