The two body blows administered to the Palestinians on Saturday have perhaps fatally set back the peace process. The resignation of Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has derailed the road map because the initiative’s chief sponsor, the United States, and Israel view Abbas as the only Palestinian they will deal with. And the attempted Israeli assassination of the Hamas spiritual leader Ahmed Yassin, an immensely popular Palestinian figure, on the same day will lead to fierce reprisals by the resistance movement.
Israel will now take the opportunity of Abbas’ apparent departure to sever all contacts with the Palestinian Authority and therefore all obligations under the road map. As a consequence, it will continue its round-the-clock arrests and search raids in West Bank cities and villages and will continue building the wall that divides the country. Tel Aviv will continue to claim that it is unable to restrain the zealotry of Jewish settlers when in fact it has probably encouraged them to undermine the road map.
The picture is a far cry from where the parties stood in June when President George Bush got Ariel Sharon and Abbas to shake hands on the road map. It was an incredible decision on Israel’s part to try to kill Yassin, leader of the biggest Palestinian resistance movement. It was a red line the Israelis should never have crossed. But cross it they did. The result is that already some of Hamas’ members are calling for the blood of Sharon.
The persistent warnings by Israel that Arafat may soon have to be banished will now only increase, perhaps as a way of pressuring the Palestinian leader to recall Abbas. The hawkish Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz last week repeated his call for Arafat’s expulsion, arguing that the government had made a “historic mistake” in not kicking him out after it came to power two years ago. So far, Sharon has overruled Mofaz’s demands, but Abbas’ dramatic resignation may force Sharon to reconsider.
The dispute between Arafat and Abbas that led to Abbas’ resignation was counterproductive. The argument over who would control the PA’s security forces probably made it easier for Israel to justify its targeted killings of activists by arguing that the Palestinians themselves were too busy squabbling to curb the attackers. But the real battle is with Israel. In his letter of resignation, Abbas first blamed Israel’s unwillingness to implement the road map and Washington’s subsequent failure to pressure Israel into ending its military operations. Arafat may yet retain Abbas and ask him to form a new Cabinet. For the moment, however, Abbas’ resignation and the attack on Sheikh Yassin amount to two steps backward for the peace process. The first event will cause debilitating delays and the second can only lead to more bloodshed.
