OCCUPIED JERUSALEM, 9 September 2003 — As he seeks to navigate the twin obstacles of Israel and Yasser Arafat, doubts prevail about the prospects of Ahmed Qorei succeeding as Palestinian prime minister where Mahmoud Abbas failed.
“The two men are from the same school of thought that advocates negotiations to achieve a Palestinian state while (Palestinian leader Yasser) Arafat believes in revolution until victory,” analyst Mahdi Abdel Hadi said.
Abdel Hadi and other commentators believe that despite his warmer ties with Arafat, Qorei is likely to run into the same problems as Abbas, notably on what strategy to adopt in dealings with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and how to push for the implementation of the US-backed roadmap.
“Sharon doesn’t care about the road map. All he wants is to take land, completely eliminate Hamas and neutralize (Arafat’s) Fatah party politically,” Abdel Hadi added.
Analysts have been at pains in recent days to show that Abbas was caught between a rock and a hard place.
While the Palestinian leadership lambasted him for failing to win concessions from Israel, despite his success in negotiating a Palestinian cease-fire, the Israelis slammed him for failing to crush “terror” groups.
Abbas resigned Saturday, amid a bitter conflict with Arafat over control of the security services. The veteran Palestinian leader refused to relinquish management of the sprawling forces, despite international pressure. Arafat then asked Qorei to succeed Abbas, after his nomination won overwhelming support from senior members of Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization. The moderate premier said he resigned because of the impasse in the peace process, which he blamed on Israel and the United States, as well as a lack of support for his government from Arafat.
He accused the US administration of not pressuring Israel to meet its obligations under the road map and stop ongoing Israeli raids against suspected Palestinian militants. Whereas “Abbas had the advantage of a cease-fire,” Qorei faces a rougher ride because “Israel is waging an all-out war” on hard-line movements, explained Abdel Hadi, who heads the Palestinian Academic Society for the Study of International Affairs.
Following an Aug. 19 bus bombing in Jerusalem, which effectively ended a six-week truce by Palestinian militant groups, Israel launched a series of strikes on top Hamas leaders and pledged to eliminate them all. Gaza-based analyst Hassan Al-Kashef believes that Qorei, also known as Abu Ala, could succeed if real US pressure were brought to bear on Israel.
“Sharon gave nothing to Abu Mazen (Abbas), he won’t give anything to Abu Ala,” he said. The question of security services, which Abbas sought to control in order to rein in militant groups, is also likely to dog Qorei.
