PARIS, 14 November 2003 — The International Energy Agency raised yesterday its forecast for global oil demand for this and next year because of a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in China. The Paris-based organization said in its monthly oil report for October it had raised its estimate for global oil demand growth by 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.28 million for 2003, and by 20,000 bpd to 1.08 million bpd for 2004.
China, the driving force, was contributing almost 35 percent of global growth this year and 30 percent in 2004, the agency said.
“At this juncture, China is the engine of global oil demand growth with significant room for further expansion in the industrial and transportation sectors. Our forecast has considerable upside potential.
“Should economic growth trends continue, we would expect to see further upward revisions to Chinese oil demand in the future,” it said.
In contrast, estimates for demand from the wealthy countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development were held steady for 2003 but cut by 80,000 bpd for 2004, reflecting more comfortable US natural-gas inventories, it said. World oil production grew by 1.2 million bpd to 80.9 million in October.
Crude oil supply from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 415,000 bpd and other supplies by 790,000 bpd.
Iraqi exports averaged 1.2 million bpd. OPEC-10 production, which excludes Iraq, was estimated at 25.6 million bpd in October compared with OPEC’s November target of 24.5 million bpd.
Meanwhile, US inventories of crude oil declined over the past week, while gasoline reserves were replenished, according to government and industry reports yesterday. But the reports by the US Department of Energy and the American Petroleum Institute differed on the direction of supplies of distillate products, which include heating oil. The DoE said crude oil supplies fell by 800,000 barrels to 291.8 million in the week to Nov. 7. The API reported a fall of 1.84 million barrels to 291.9 million.
For gasoline, government figures showed a rise of one million barrels to 192.3 million barrels, while the API reported a 1.54-million-barrel increase to 1.94 million barrels.
Oil prices were slightly lower yesterday as traders attempted to make sense of two sets of diverging data as to the extent of US energy stockpiles. The price of Brent North Sea crude oil for December delivery fell 10 cents to $29.10 per barrel.
New York’s reference light sweet crude December contract also fell 10 cents to $31.23 per barrel in morning trade.
