THE unfortunate truth about the so-called “breakthrough” agreement brokered in Nairobi between Somalia’s warring factions is that it will be no more enduring than any of its predecessors. Somalia is a country which has effectively dissolved. Reconstituting it as a viable and peaceful whole will require a great deal more than some grudging concessions by the country’s belligerent warlords.
In colonial times, what is now Somalia was shared by the British and the Italians. The northern part of the country, once British-occupied, declared itself independent in 1991. While resisting the feeble military attacks from Mogadishu, Somaliland, as it calls itself, has managed to create effective self-government, backed by a referendum mandate in which the people chose independence. A lesser breakaway, which occurred in 1998, is that of neighboring Puntland in northeastern Somalia, which maintains a vigorous autonomy. Both places are relatively peaceful compared to the rest of the country. But clearly for the people of Somaliland at least, any agreement to rejoin Somalia will take much more than a few signatures on a piece of paper in Nairobi — a signing by the way, which has in any event been delayed and may yet not happen.
The harsh truth is that Somalia’s leaders, past and present, have made just about every error in the political lexicon while being exploited by their neighbors. These human errors have been compounded by a chain of droughts and famines. Worse, now there is clear evidence that international terrorists are exploiting the anarchy to use Somalia for their own evil ends.
Violence created this mess but violence is not going to solve it — whether it is from one warlord trying to destroy all the others or from the US Marines or anyone else, even if well-intentioned, storming ashore once again to try to restore order. A settlement will only come when the faction leaders and their supporters recognize that if Somalia is to become strong, prosperous and a reality, its broken parts must be voluntarily put back together.
Yet, even though the outside world has seen successive leaderships in Mogadishu blow every chance at international aid and advice, it does not mean that help should cease. Support clearly needs to go where it will be most effective. That could mean that support goes to two breakaway areas where a semblance of peace and order reigns.
Such support need not be a recognition of political independence but more a demonstration that where consensus and peace have been achieved, palpable aid benefits will arrive. Therefore, perhaps instead of trying to rebuild Somalia from the top down, the reverse would be better, producing a single state to which all parties eventually commit themselves, one by one.
