The question on many minds these days is whether Sharon’s political bombshell to dismantle settlements in Gaza is a cynical ploy or a genuine attempt to revive the peace process. Sharon has denied any self-serving motive behind the timing of his announcement but no-one could be blamed for distrusting his motives. Of all Israeli politicians, Sharon seems virtually the least likely to propose such a plan which amounts to a kind of retreat. The settler movement, with Sharon as its leader, has built some 140 outposts in the occupied territories and populated them with about 200,000 Jews. His critics also point out that Sharon agreed to freeze settlements and remove smaller outposts as part of the US-backed road map peace plan but has so far dismantled only a handful of outposts.
So what is the settler’s hero really up to? One reason for Sharon’s actions appears to be an attempt to satisfy the Israeli electorate that has grown increasingly upset with more than three years of violence. Israeli opinion polls in recent months have indicated a drop in support for the prime minister. However, a poll in a mass circulation Israeli daily showed that 39 percent of those surveyed after last week’s proposal were satisfied with Sharon’s performance as prime minister compared with a record low of 33 percent the previous week.
Another of Sharon’s motives is finding a way to divert attention from corruption allegations involving his family. But perhaps Sharon’s biggest gain is appearing to move forward in the peace process when in fact he is standing still, and by appearing to give up so much in Gaza, it will make it easier to take more from somewhere else such as the West Bank. This is what many Palestinians fear as one of the options under discussion. Another is a plan to move Gaza Strip settlers to the West Bank.
Despite relocation, Sharon’s overall settlement gambit is risky. Settlers are naturally furious and, outraged at the proposal with some members of Sharon’s right-wing coalition threatening to bring down his government by withdrawing their support. Last Monday, after announcing the settlements plan, the prime minister survived a parliamentary vote of confidence of only one single vote. Opinion polls constantly suggest that many Israelis believe that the occupation of Palestinian land is harming the Jewish state and there is also resentment over the cost of protecting the settlements. Has a super hawk such as the Israeli prime minister begun to think the same? Has he become pragmatic enough to abandon hopes of keeping all the occupied territory forever? Israeli officials say Sharon’s plan could be put into action as early as this summer. Palestinian officials, on the other hand, say they will believe it when they see it.
