BEIJING, 16 February 2004 — Taiwan’s upcoming presidential elections and Hong Kong’s democratic stirrings are creating an unsettling problem for China, which is anxious to keep a lid on any moves toward independence, analysts said.
The nightmare scenario as seen from Beijing is for Hong Kong to eventually produce an equivalent to Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s separatism-minded president who is running for re-election on March 20.
Although Taiwan has been a de facto state since splitting from the mainland in 1949, China still considers it as part of its territory. China also fears that democracy in its autonomous enclave Hong Kong will inspire similar aspirations in mainland cities, where economic reforms have created a powerful new elite and growing middle class.
“They really are concerned about the people in Hong Kong electing somebody that could move toward independence,” said David Zweig, a political scientist at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
“I don’t think it’s going to happen. People seem to be realistic here. But that seems to be one of China’s fears,” he said.
Those fears were made obvious this week, when a Hong Kong task force visited Beijing to seek the government’s views on possible universal suffrage in the autonomous enclave by 2007. After three days of meetings, Beijing made it clear that democracy would have to wait. Hong Kong’s autonomy means “self-governing under the authorization of the central government,” the official Xinhua news agency declared, implying the Chinese government would have the final say on political change.
Statements like this will not go unnoticed by Taiwan’s voters, who are only too aware that the “one country, two systems” formula adopted when Hong Kong reverted to China in 1997 was originally coined in order to get Taiwan to accept reunification.
Even so, Hong Kong’s situation is unlikely to have much impact on Taiwan’s neck-and-neck presidential race between pro-independence and pro-Beijing parties.
Taiwan’s public knows that China’s watchword for Hong Kong is stability, according to Wu Nengyuan, head of Taiwan research at the Fujian Academy of Social Sciences.
“So basically this won’t affect Taiwan’s attitude toward reunification and the ‘one country, two systems’ policy,” he said.
Taiwan’s public may also not equate their own situation with that of Hong Kong.
“’One country, two systems’ has no appeal to the Taiwan people anyway,” said Joseph Cheng, a China watcher at City University of Hong Kong. “If there is no reform in Hong Kong, people in Taiwan won’t be surprised.”
But even if Taiwan were not such a major problem for the Chinese government, Hong Kong would still be a top agenda item, according to observers. From Beijing’s perspective, a fully democratic Hong Kong could have dangerous implications for the mainland. If Hong Kong can enjoy democracy, the mainland’s increasingly sophisticated urbanites might begin to ask questions about some of China’s cities where living standards are rapidly approaching those of their wealthy southern neighbor.
The problem is made all the more complex for the Chinese leadership because of the intense international scrutiny of Hong Kong, severely limiting its scope of action.
China took control of Hong Kong from Britain in 1997, since when the territory’s problems have steadily multiplied.
