It is now only three months until the US-led coalition hands power over to the Iraqis but the security position in the country is very poor indeed. Precisely why this should be so after a year of military occupation is worth examining.
The terror is coming from both diehard Baathists and foreign fighters, almost certainly organized by elements of Al-Qaeda. This much is clear. However whether these two groups who would once have had no time for each other are now acting in concert is still unclear. Where they are drawing their munitions and explosives from is also unclear. How foreign fighters are infiltrating into Iraq is still unclear. It points to a substantial intelligence failure.
This has happened for two reasons. The first is that though they claimed to be liberators, the coalition was very quickly seen as occupiers. Moderate Iraqis said they were glad to be rid of Saddam and his regime but in the next breath earnestly wished the Americans and their allies would go home. Why the coalition has failed to win the trust of ordinary Iraqis has much to do with the fact that he Americans have a fundamental lack of insight and understanding both of Iraq and of the wider Middle East.
The coalition expected to be welcomed as liberators and to have a grateful population fall in behind Washington’s leadership. As the high command of the old regime was killed or captured, they assumed that the initial fear of a Baathist return to power would be transformed into enthusiastic support for the coalition. By the time of Saddam’s eventual capture in December, public disillusionment with the Americans was pretty well complete. Saddam’s capture was celebrated but little credit was given to the US. The key consideration is this: No insurgency can survive without the support and protection of part of the population. Baathist resistance in Saddam’s old heartland around Tikrit undoubtedly benefits from old loyalties among locals. But the ability of foreign insurgents to survive anywhere in the Iraqi landscape, where they ought to stick out like sore thumbs, is deeply troubling. It would seem to demonstrate how unsuccessful the Americans have been in persuading Iraqis that they must rally around their interim government. That lack of enthusiasm has a lot to do with perceptions of the interim government as a creature of Washington’s policy.
This is extremely dangerous. Instead of venting their anger and frustration on the Americans and their coalition allies, Iraqis should be working calmly and determinedly toward building their own future. Unfortunately, discontent with the coalition is being exploited by the insurgents in order to sow discord which is designed to undermine the future of a free and diverse Iraq. Both the coalition and the Iraqis are making a serious mistake for which ultimately the Iraqis will pay the real price.
