KUWAIT, 24 May 2004 — In March 2004, at the beautiful Alexandria National Library, optimism about the possibilities of reform in the Middle East, and Egypt’s role in it, was palpable. That month, Arabs from throughout the region opened their minds and mouths in a rare instance of self-criticism and reflection. For the first time in years, Egyptians and other Arabs were thinking beyond the usual boundaries about their situation.
Today the problems of the Arab world are on center stage. Can the states of the Middle East adopt the reforms needed to halt the downward spiral of despair and rage among their peoples? Muslims have experimented with most of modernity’s political creeds. Just about the only ideology the region has not tried is liberal capitalist democracy.
The lack of political participation by the masses has become an underlying current of anger and rebellion in the Arab world. The status quo is now being challenged to the extent that the old methods of traditional politics and governance cannot be sustained. Thus the Arab world finds itself at a potentially historic turning point confronted by confusion and approaching storms.
Given the Middle East’s malaise, the status quo cannot long endure. What, however, will replace it? Three scenarios, all of them dark, are possible: Anarchy of the type that allowed Osama Bin Laden to flourish in Afghanistan and spread terrorism of the type that is now haunting Saudi Arabia; civil war of the sort that has ravaged Algeria and Sudan; or a new Saddam-style authoritarianism that breeds war and isolation. Active engagement by, and effective partnerships with, members of the international community could, however, change the course of events and steer them toward a positive outcome: A reformist path leading to the establishment of the rule of law, advancement of individual rights, creation of robust civil societies, and democratization across the Arab world.
Political reform should lead to the liberation of Arab economies from state hegemony and to the launch of new projects to benefit future generations. Reform means ridding Arab states of sluggish bureaucracies and corruption while empowering women and youth. Reform must also open the door for political competition through free elections. Such measures could protect states from anarchy, terrorism, and rebellion. The granting of political and cultural freedoms are vital for the establishment of an enlightened Arab citizenry no longer fearful of abusive authority.
After decades of isolation, caused by dictators and other government extremists, the Arab world will need to engage the grassroots for political reform to succeed. The creation of an open framework for political parties, including freedom of association, is an essential element in developing mature political processes. Space must also be provided for the third force of youth, human rights activists, and entrepreneurs, in order to achieve homegrown reform. Constitutional commitments by all political forces is another essential element.
Religion has become a source of political conflict rather than a source of spirituality and peace. For the Arab world to move forward peacefully, Islamist movements must be recognized as part of the political spectrum, and Islamists must explicitly accept that all political movements be allowed freedom of expression and participation. The rights of minorities must be acknowledged, and linguistic and religious diversity respected. Some Arab states will manage to reform while others will disintegrate. It will take at least a decade before Arabs experience its positive results. One or two examples of economic and political success will shine in the region. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE may be the best bets for adopting a liberal approach, given the steps already taken toward reform. By contrast, viable reforms in Saudi Arabia faces much greater challenges.
In Jordan, reform will require altering the country’s social fabric, including providing Palestinian Jordanians with greater freedom to contribute politically and economically in meaningful ways. Jordan has already initiated a set of reforms. More is needed.
Although leadership of the Arab world has shifted from Egypt, Cairo remains one of the central actors in the region. No other state has filled the vacuum at a time of competition among Arab states in diverse areas. Egypt can reclaim its leadership role if it picks up the mantle of cultural renaissance, liberalism, democracy, educational reform, and economic development. Indeed, the collapse or renewal of the Arab world may well depend in part on the fate of reform in Egypt.
As for Syria, it must take bold steps, including political liberalization and minimizing state dominance of politics, culture, and economic life, if it is to avoid becoming strategically irrelevant. President Bashar Al-Asad, has the capacity to reform Syria, but he faces numerous hurdles, including an entrenched establishment.
It is too early to tell whether Iraq is a land lost to civil war and hate. Rebuilding an Iraqi state will be difficult, but it is doable and extremely important that it succeeds. Failure will only reinforce the radicalism and volatility in today’s Arab politics. A civil war or a failed state in Iraq will create a new cycle of regional conflict — involving Iran, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, radical Islamists, Kurds, and others.
Indigenous reform in the Middle East is only two-thirds of the issue. Reform cannot succeed in the midst of Arab-Israeli conflict that bolsters extremists and hatred on other fronts. Proponents of Arab reform, whether Americans or Arabs or Europeans, must stand for an end to occupation and the implementation of a just peace.
The Arab world is living through a pre-democratic moment. If the Spanish and Italian experiments with democratization and development are any guide, transition will be long, violent, and complex.
— Shafeeq Ghabra is president of the American University of Kuwait. This article is part of a series of views on the US “Greater Middle East” Initiative for reform, published in partnership with the Common Ground News Service (CGNews).
