LONDON, 12 June 2004 — Britons angry over Iraq punished Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday, relegating his Labour Party to an unprecedented third place in local elections.
“Iraq was a cloud, or indeed a shadow, over these elections,” Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott said after the main opposition Conservatives triumphed along with the Liberal Democrats in results from Thursday’s vote.
“I am not saying we haven’t had a kicking. It’s not a great day for Labour,” said Prescott.
The local council poll outcome, likely to be echoed in European Parliament results on Sunday, will renew speculation about Blair’s leadership. The result of London’s mayoral race later may also weigh against Blair’s handling of Iraq.
But analysts still believe Blair — US President George W. Bush’s closest ally over Iraq — will win a third general election, widely expected to be held in 2005.
With results from 156 of the 166 local councils declared, Labour had lost 442 seats, the main opposition Conservative Party had gained 256 and Britain’s third largest party, the Liberal Democrats — which staked its campaign heavily on it being the only major party to oppose the war — gained 115 seats. Labour lost control of seven councils, including its northern strongholds of Newcastle and Leeds.
The BBC projected Labour’s vote share at 26 percent, behind the Conservatives with 38 percent and the Liberal Democrats at 29 percent. Analysts said it was unprecedented for a governing party to come third in local council elections.
Conservative leader Michael Howard was buoyant. “We will build on the achievements of last night and I am very much looking forward to the next general election,” he said.
John Curtice, political analyst at Strathclyde University in Scotland, said the result did not bode disaster for Blair. “It is a warning not to take a third term in office for granted,” Curtice told The Associated Press.
Voters traditionally register their grievances against the party in power in midterm elections. In local elections in 2000, the Conservatives gained 593 seats and Labour lost 568. The following year, Blair won a second landslide victory in national elections.
George Jones, professor of government at London School of Economics, said a poor result may cause some Labour lawmakers to become jittery and provide further ammunition for those dissatisfied with Blair’s leadership.
Blair’s popularity has slumped since the war amid doubts about his judgment and truthfulness and some in the party question whether he has become an electoral liability.
Foreign Secretary Jack Straw tried to scotch speculation about Blair’s future. “The prime minister’s position is very secure and very well recognized around the country,” Straw said.
“What you have got is a government that is clearly unpopular, but a main opposition party that is not capitalizing,” said opinion pollster Peter Kellner.
He said the Conservatives needed 40 percent or more to be on course for victory at the next general election.
The Conservatives did not agree with that assessment.
“It has been Labour’s worst electoral performance in living memory and it is the first time that a government has been pushed into third place in midterm elections,” said Conservative Chairman Liam Fox.
The results will heighten calls from some quarters for Blair to give way to his powerful Finance Minister Gordon Brown.
Blair has said he is “up for” a third general election bid and this week’s unanimous UN Security Council resolution on Iraq offers the prospect of some respite on a persistently damaging issue.
The Conservatives might have fared better were it not for a surge by the previously marginal UK Independence Party (UKIP), which advocates Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union.
An opinion poll said the UKIP, tapping into Britons’ wary view of Europe, would win up to 12 of 78 British seats in the European Parliament when the results are declared on Sunday.
The Liberal Democrats, long Britain’s third party, benefited from their opposition to the Iraq war. “Iraq cast a long shadow across these elections,” party leader Charles Kennedy said.
In London, Labour’s Ken Livingstone was narrowly re-elected as mayor. But his win says little about Blair’s popularity as he has wasted no chance to assert his independence from Blair over issues such as Iraq.
But Blair still commands a huge majority in Parliament. “Blair is going to win the next general election because he starts from such a strong position with a majority of 161,” said Bob Worcester, chairman of the MORI polling agency.
