WASHINGTON, 12 September 2004 — After a year of little change in the political landscape, Democrats had cause for concern with the unveiling of polls showing significant Bush gains over the Labor Day weekend. Time, among others, gave Bush a 10-point lead. Labor Day is a point of departure in the campaign cycle, traditionally the beginning of the final and most critical leg of the electoral marathon. But more than that, it sorts out the contenders from the pretenders, the Clintons from the Dukakis. Even prior to the Republican Convention, held Aug. 30-Sept. 2, Kerry had ceded momentum to more aggressive, focused Republican strategists. The Convention itself, as is the norm, produced a bounce for embattled incumbent George W. Bush. Clearly, the combination of Kerry shortcomings and Bush positioning — greatly bolstered by his convention-week monopoly of the US media — changed the complexion of the race. With 50 days remaining until election day, it would be easy to forecast a Bush victory. But it would also be premature.
After the Democratic Convention in July, John Kerry had the edge, though not decisively. Like successful challengers of the past, he positioned himself as a viable alternative who gave American voters confidence that he possessed the ability to take hold of the reins of government. Kerry used his party’s convention to highlight his security credentials, as the vaguely-defined issues of “national security” — which in the mind of the electorate combines the war on terrorism, Iraq, foreign policy, homeland security, and defense — is judged the most important issue this year. Kerry’s strategy relied on making his case by utilizing his distinguished Vietnam War record.
In hindsight, many Democrats have belittled his Boston performance. But at the time, Kerry gained ground on Bush not only on the aggregate, but on the aforementioned issues comprising national security, issues which traditionally favor Republicans. Many panicking Democrats are now snipping at Kerry, but these same individuals were singing Kerry’s praise in early August. The overall Democratic Convention theme was not necessarily flawed, but it did fail to sell the idea that the economy, education, health care, and job creation are important to “national security” if not national well-being. After all, polls show voters are convinced the country is headed in the wrong direction, and accordingly are willing to listen to new ideas.
In allowing the pro-Bush Swift Boat Veterans for Truth to distort his military record, Kerry made a big mistake. But the decision to wait two weeks before responding to these inaccurate but politically damaging advertisements compounded it. His belated response kept the focus on the ads for at least an additional week.
Then there is Iraq. Democrats and other critics of Bush’s handling of Iraq have always been leery with the fact Kerry voted in favor of authorizing the use of force in Iraq. Kerry’s subsequent rhetoric has been confusing. At the core, Kerry wants to finish the job in Iraq, support the troops, and encourage allies to assume peacekeeping and financial responsibilities. Reasonable enough, but Kerry has had difficulty articulating his Iraq position in a manner digestible to voters. Bush’s knack for making even the most complex issues black-or-white makes Kerry’s explanations all the worse. In early August, Bush goaded the Democrat into saying he would, with the benefit of hindsight, still vote to authorize force in Iraq. No one heard the numerous clauses he included in his answer, and Bush used the short-form of it to highlight the perception of Kerry as wishy-washy.
Bush has been called many names by his critics, but no one should underestimate his political skills. He has proven to be the ultimate retail campaigner, successfully employing bumper-sticker analysis to sell himself or lambaste his foes. He also adheres — especially on Iraq — to the Harry Truman adage, “if you can’t convince them, confuse them.” The past month he used these strengths to resuscitate what was in early August a fledgling campaign.
As Kerry sputtered, the New York Republican Convention cemented the image of Bush as a strong war-time leader. Aside from taking the lead in the presidential horserace, Bush gained the advantage on managing the war on terrorism (57 percent-35 percent), Iraq (53 percent-37 percent), and foreign relations (47 percent-42 percent). On each of these issues, Kerry either led or was even with Bush a month ago. So successful was Bush in extolling his leadership credentials that he even, at least momentarily, overtook or minimized Kerry’s edge on domestic issues such as the economy, jobs, education, and health care .
The Republicans made August about Kerry and his shortcomings. But as history dictates, in presidential elections when an incumbent faces a challenger, the election is ultimately a referendum on the incumbent. Bush has a record, and not all of it is positive. The economy is more bad than good for the president, and the deficit, among other domestic issues, could be exploited by Democrats. Furthermore, by playing the national security card, Bush is captive to events beyond his control. This past week, for example, was particularly bloody for American forces in Iraq; the total US death toll for that conflict exceeded 1,000. Terrorism is another wild card. While many believe a pre-election terrorist strike in the US would be a boon to Bush, one should not be so sure. Just ask Jose Maria Aznar.
Bush holds the lead, but already it does not appear as large as the Time poll suggested. Averaging the 9 most recently released polls, Bush bests Kerry 49.0 percent to 44.7 percent. This is a significant shift from earlier periods. From Aug. 15-26, Kerry led 46.0 percent to 45.5 percent. After the Democratic Convention in early August, the polls favored the Democrat by 3.4 percent. One must keep in mind, despite recent movements, Bush’s actual advantage is still small. It is likely the polls will grow tighter in the coming weeks, as the Bush convention luster wears off. But make no mistake: Bush is winning at this point. Kerry must regain footing, define his agenda, crisply attack Bush, and hope for Republican missteps. Of course, bad news pertaining to Iraq or the economy also benefits the challenger.
— David Dumke is the CEO of the American Middle East Information Network.
