WASHINGTON, 1 November 2004 — As the presidential marathon launches into its final hours, President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry are involved in one of the most fiercely fought elections in recent memory, and the most costly in history. Both candidates have spent nearly $40 million on TV ads in the campaign’s final week and more than $400 million on TV and radio commercials since the ad war began in March.
Neither man has a clear advantage in tomorrow’s presidential elections. Bush has solid leads in 23 states with 197 electoral votes and is favored in four more, which could give him a total of 227. Kerry is equally solid in 13 states with 178 electoral votes and is favored in five states, which could bring him 232 votes. It takes 270 electoral votes to win. The remaining six undecided “swing” or “tossup” states — Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico — hold the magic 79 electoral votes that could determine the winner.
Political observers are closely watching crucial sectors within the electorate, including the large Hispanic vote — which both candidates have aggressively sought to obtain; a divided labor union vote; and the black vote, which polls show is less fervently Democratic than in prior years.
In the past months, voters have swung back and forth in the polls making this one of the most hotly contested elections in history. Today the Zogby Poll — which gained notoriety when it alone predicted Bill Clinton’s election in 1992 — announced that Kerry has moved in front by one point: Giving Kerry the lead at 47% to Bush’s 46%.
Tomorrow’s election also comes in the middle of a controversial wartime environment. Polls show the country is deeply polarized over the war in Iraq and cornered about the economy and jobs.
Consumer confidence has fallen for three straight months while gasoline and oil prices have shot up to more than $2 a gallon through the US. The stock market has been volatile, pummeled by uncertainties over Iraq and oil prices surpassing $50 a barrel. This pushed the Dow below the magic 10,000 level, which in turn weakened worker retirement funds.
There is also remaining bitterness over the presidential election results of four years ago; the race was so fiercely contested between Bush and former Vice President Al Gore that the US Supreme Court ultimately decided who would be president.
In Florida and elsewhere, early-voting numbers have reached historic levels, with nearly 25 percent of eligible voters statewide already having cast their votes.
Democratic strategists there say anger over voter disenfranchisement during the 2000 election has caused the increased turnout and could hurt President Bush’s chances of winning the state.
But both camps are insisting they have the largest turnout organizations in modern political history.
One interesting development in this election is the active participation of American expatriates, who describe themselves as anti-Bush and say this election is the most important in their lifetime. As a result, they have paid for their own flights home and used their vacation time to campaign for Kerry. Many say they have never worked before for a political campaign.
The expat program, dubbed the “2004th Airborne,” was organized by the Democratic Party and helps expats to take part in door-to-door canvassing in crucial swing states, driving housebound voters to the polls, or running phone banks.
But the program has proved so successful that even the organizers admit to being overwhelmed by sheer number of expats who contacted them. “These people have come a long way to help us. I don’t want to say it’s surprising, but it’s certainly gratifying,” Jim Brenner of the group “Americans Overseas for Kerry,” told reporters.
