JEDDAH, 8 November 2004 — For the past two decades Mahmoud Abbas, also known by his nom de guerre of Abu Mazen, has formed part of a double act with Yasser Arafat, at times risking his career, if not his life, by being what the now ailing Palestinian leader is not. The double act went something like this: Arafat played the role of passion incarnate, the tribune who would breath fire and brimstone about the Palestinian cause, without ever bothering to define it. To Abbas was assigned the role of wisdom incarnate, the cool, methodic mind that could always be called upon to retrieve Arafat from the edge of the precipice.
Now, as Palestinians prepare to move beyond the Arafat era, Abbas looks almost certain to emerge as the new leader. To be sure, the arrangements being negotiated envisage replacing Arafat with a three-man committee, in which Abbas would be a member, at least for a period of transition. But, once elections are held and a new Parliament chosen, Abbas is almost certain to find himself alone as chairman of the Palestinian Authority. That Mahmoud Abbas is a different man from Arafat is instantly evident: he wears a business suit, not a military uniform and kaffiyeh. He is a former elementary school teacher — studious, gracious, pragmatic and opposed to terrorism. He is also tough enough to have been Yasser Arafat’s No. 2 for many years in the Palestine Liberation Organization.
In many ways, he was a crucial Arafat adviser, one of the few Palestinians who studied Israeli history and politics, even as some regarded him as a traitor for doing so. “He studies issues intellectually and then tries to draw political conclusions,” said Yossi Beilin, an Israeli politician who negotiated with Abbas on the draft of a peace treaty. Abbas has criticized this latest intifada openly as “a complete destruction of everything we built,” having said in June, “We call upon all factions to end the attacks as we wish to take the path toward negotiation. We seek a dialogue that will bring calm.” Reluctantly, in March 2003, he accepted the new post of prime minister of the Palestinian Authority because Arafat and the United States wanted him to — a vain effort by outsiders to dilute Arafat’s power. Arafat, never a fool when power is at stake, undermined Abbas from the start, helped by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Abbas quit in disgust four months later. He even quit the central committee of Fatah, Arafat’s faction in the PLO.
A joke at the time has Arafat and Abbas in a car, and Arafat keeps warning him, “Watch out!” Finally, Abbas complains: “But you’re driving!” Now that Abbas is moving into the driver’s seat, he is expected to take the current prime minister, Ahmed Qorei, or Abu Ala, next to him. It will be an enormous test for both, but it is Abbas, aged 69, who will be the most visible Palestinian leader — and the one with the most clout, once he takes over, as expected, as the chairman of the PLO and Fatah, its largest faction.
As decent and thoughtful as he is, Beilin warns, Abbas has strong views about the right of the Palestinians to share Jerusalem and about the fair treatment of Palestinian refugees from 1948. To secure his position, Abbas cannot appear to be weaker than Arafat on central questions of Palestinian identity and self-respect. “Abu Mazen is good for the peace camps on both sides,” Beilin said, “but don’t expect him to be ‘a moderate Palestinian’ — he’s a pragmatic one.”
Abbas has his own channels to militant groups, especially Hamas, which is powerful in Gaza. When he was prime minister, he worked out a short-lived cease-fire with them and the Israelis. But Hamas has its own demands in the new collective leadership. It has been asking, at least in Gaza, for control of the education system, for a requirement that women wear veils, and for autonomy in the mosques, so that the Palestinian Authority can no longer replace imams.
Those are the kinds of internal issues that Abbas will face, Western hopes for final peace settlements aside, and Palestinians and Israelis will watch how he responds to them very closely. Abbas is not a natural politician, however. He is described by associates as easily offended, one reason that he stayed away from Palestinian politics, never becoming a legislator or a minister before the job of prime minister was invented and became his. It is also why he has no wider political or local base among ordinary Palestinians. He is respected as one of the founders of the PLO, even though, as some say, he came a little late — “the fifth of four.” Abbas was an early Palestinian voice advocating negotiations with Israel and an eventual recognition of it. He initiated dialogue with Jewish and pacifist movements in the 1970s, pushed for a two-state solution, coordinated negotiations at the Madrid conference and headed the Palestinian delegation in secret talks with the Israelis and Beilin that led to the 1993 Oslo accords.
In fact, Abbas was the Palestinian who signed the accords on behalf of the PLO, as well as an interim agreement with Israel in 1995. He and Beilin also drafted a framework for a final status agreement in October 1995, although its existence was denied for five years. He returned to the Palestinian territories in 1995 after 48 years in exile. Born in Safed, a town that is now part of northern Israel, on March 26, 1935, he left as a refugee in 1948 for Syria and became a teacher. He has a law degree from Damascus University and a Ph.D. in history from the Oriental College in Moscow.
Abbas is married and had three grown sons, though the eldest, Mazen, died of a heart attack at age 42. Abbas himself has survived a bout with prostate cancer. As prime minister, he was undermined by Arafat, who refused, as he has to this day, to hand over control of the various Palestinian security services to the prime minister or to allow them to be reorganized. Sharon, who negotiated slowly with him over confidence-building measures like the release of Palestinian prisoners, also undermined Abbas. In the end, Sharon carried out a prisoner swap with Hezbollah, the militant group based in Lebanon, and its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, who is sworn to Israel’s destruction, that dwarfed anything Abbas achieved and created significant bitterness in the Palestinian leadership. Beilin said, “A lot depends on the good will of Israel, and whether we want to help the moderate leadership or not. We didn’t before.
The point is not to embrace Abbas and Qorei, which would damage them, but to talk to them in public, something Sharon has always refused to do with Arafat.”
Hisham Ahmad, a political scientist at Bir Zeit University, is skeptical about Abbas’ ability to win credibility from Palestinians. “Arafat was down-to-earth, a people’s leader, and while there are many other talented Palestinians, talent is not sufficient for leadership.” So, what else is needed for Mahmoud Abbas to succeed? Well, the three things that every politician needs for success under any circumstances: Trustworthy friends, wise adversaries, and a bit of good luck.
