Less than two weeks after the passing away of Yasser Arafat, a new impetus has been injected into peace efforts — and the results have been surprising at times and remarkable at others. Preparations for elections on Jan. 9 to choose Arafat’s successor are going smoothly. While former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is widely tipped to succeed Arafat, this has not stopped a range of independents from trying. And unity is also on show as five Palestinian factions, two of whom boycotted the previous elections in 1996, have agreed to field a joint candidate.
There are, however, threats to a peaceful transition. Israel must withdraw from Palestinian areas and halt all military operations to allow elections to go forward smoothly. Incursions or curfews will definitely affect the process. There are fears too that either fighting with Israel or internal Palestinian squabbles or even clashes among them could make it difficult to campaign freely and hold a fair election. Hamas and Islamic Jihad will not take part in the elections. And they have no intention of suspending their attacks against Israel. Thus, one act by Hamas or Jihad, then a brutal Israeli crackdown, and the cycle of violence restarts. Which is why Israel and the United States must come up with the goods; and it appears on some counts there have been such steps. Ariel Sharon is now considering coordinating his Gaza pullout plan with a new Palestinian leadership. That Sharon might liaise with Palestinians on his Gaza withdrawal plan and security measures in Gaza after a pullout is a dramatic departure from policy. But what really has narrowed the goalposts has been Sharon’s switch of position regarding attacks against Israel. His most recent claim that the Palestinian leadership no longer has to tackle “militant groups” in order to hold talks with Israel, “because that will take time and we do not have time to waste,” has shaken the foundation upon which Israel has based almost its entire Palestine policy. More significant are the signals that Israel may allow Palestinians in East Jerusalem to vote in the elections.
President Bush has not made such remarkable shifts. But he has been persuaded, by Tony Blair perhaps, that the United States must re-engage in the peace process. This is highly encouraging from an administration that has so far systematically avoided a wholehearted plunge into the conflict. One solid good first step has been the plan by the administration to give $20 million in aid directly to the PA, bypassing congressional restrictions as part of a renewed push for peace. Also, outgoing US Secretary of State Colin Powell is meeting Palestinian leaders today following many months spent outside Middle East diplomacy. With Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov scheduled to meet them tomorrow and British Foreign Minister Jack Straw on Thursday, this could mean a concerted high-level engagement of the world in an effort to give the peace process a second life. Judging by what has been taking place, it looks that there has indeed been a big break in the deadlock. The death of four Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank in Israeli fire yesterday must come as a reminder to all how urgent is the need to break that deadlock totally.
