BAGHDAD, 14 January 2005 — With elections less than three weeks away, interim Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is spending much of his tenure’s final days wooing Iraqis and reassuring them of his ability to lead this nation fatigued by war and terror.
It could be a tough sell.
In the six months since the US-backed, tough-talking leader took the helm, things have gotten steadily worse in much of Iraq. An insurgency now nearing its two-year mark has intensified, racial and religious divisions have deepened and discontent has grown over a wide array of problems, from crime and unemployment to power outages and fuel shortages.
Allawi’s interim government came to office June 28 with a seven-month mandate to prepare for the Jan. 30 vote and contain the insurgency. At the time, Iraqis hoped that he had what it took to do the job, but the challenges have proved daunting.
The physician-turned-politician is running for a seat in the 275-member assembly, whose prime task will be to write a permanent constitution. Allawi is known to covet a longer tenure as prime minister. If elected to the head office by a majority in the assembly, he would be in office for another relatively short term — until December, when a second general election is to be held.
Allawi lacks a genuine base of popular support in Iraq because of the many years he spent in exile, but back-to-back terms totaling 18 months could remedy that and, consequently, help his chances for a long, top-level political career.
Some Iraqis also may be willing to give him a second chance on the grounds that he never could truly run the country the way he wanted, with the United States having the final say on all major policy decisions despite the formal end of occupation in June.
“We don’t blame Allawi alone for our problems but also those sabotaging the power and oil lines,” said Baghdad 60-year-old housewife Mona Dawoud, alluding to the insurgents. “We still want Allawi to lead us because he is strong and popular.”
To other Iraqis, Allawi is simply an American puppet who has been given the prime minister’s job to reward him for years of close cooperation with the CIA. They accuse him of condoning some US military operations perceived as harsh or heavy-handed, like the November offensive to retake insurgent-held Fallujah. Much of the city was destroyed in the fighting.
“If you’re asking me to assess Allawi, then I tell you that he did not succeed,” said businessman Adel Abdullah, 30. “In fact, he has monumentally failed. He killed many Iraqis and caused shortages of fuel, drinking water and electricity.” Such grim assessments of Allawi’s performance takes little or no account of the impact on the economy and utility infrastructure of insurgent attacks.
The insurgents have frequently bombed oil and power lines, disrupting the supply of electricity and halting crude exports, the economy’s lifeline. They also have run intimidation campaigns against utility workers and reconstruction contractors, delaying repairs.
Allawi does not shy away from acknowledging the failures of efforts under his stewardship to stamp out the insurgency. On Tuesday, he said some areas of Iraq may be too unsafe for Iraqis to vote in January, his first such public acknowledgment.
“Certainly, we haven’t succeeded,” was his reply to a reporter’s question on how he rated his government’s policy on security. “The security situation is still bad. There is some progress though, but we are still facing a security dilemma and a determined enemy.”
Being both popular and strong is precisely the image the burly Allawi seeks to project. In recent days, he has been much more visible in the media than anytime since he came to office.
This week, he gave two news conferences in as many days and appeared nightly on the popular, Dubai-based Arabiya news channel recounting his days as a senior member of Saddam’s Baath party in the 1970s and the role he played in toppling Saddam’s regime.
Earlier this week, Allawi appeared on a call-in Iraqi TV program, showing a caring touch.
“Send me your documents and I will pass it on to the defense ministry,” he told a caller who sought his help to find work. “I need a copy of your qualifications and a C.V.,” he told the man who once worked in Saddam’s large arms industry.
A woman caller said her husband was unemployed and needed work. He promised to find him a government job. Another woman called, but said she could not discuss her problem on the air. He promised that someone from his office would call back.
The next day, Allawi addressed a carefully choreographed news conference, announcing an ambitious security plan that envisages boosting the size of Iraq’s army by half, to 150,000 men, by the end of this year and beefing up other security forces.
“Security is the cornerstone of achieving all our objectives and the wishes of our people and that’s why it is the one issue that defines the government’s performance,” wrote Allawi in a 20-page, security blueprint for 2005.
