BEIRUT, 18 February 2005 — Syria is unlikely to quit Lebanon quickly despite a surge of local and foreign pressure for it to loosen its grip after the killing of ex-Premier Rafik Al-Hariri.
Hariri’s death in a bomb blast stirred painful civil war memories and his funeral produced a stunning display of communal unity and anti-Syrian sentiment on the streets of Beirut. But analysts said Damascus would cling to its influence in Lebanon, even if it eventually pulls out its remaining troops to meet UN demands orchestrated by the United States and France.
“The Syrians have a mentality of resilience and defiance,” said Lebanese political scientist Sami Baroudi. “There will be no 180-degree change.” Nevertheless the killing of Hariri, who had fallen out with Damascus, set off a political firestorm in an already charged atmosphere in Lebanon.
Opposition politicians blamed Syria, Hariri’s family warned Syria’s Lebanese allies to keep away from the funeral, and French President Jacques Chirac refused to meet his Syrian-backed Lebanese counterpart during a condolence visit. “The Syrians have a huge problem in Lebanon. They are slowly realizing how big it is,” said political analyst Rami Khouri. “Pressure is increasing on them. They must review their policies to re-engage with the Lebanese on a more mutually beneficial basis, and re-engage with the West before things get beyond the point of no return,” he said.
Syria intervened militarily in the civil war in 1976 and took effective control of Lebanon after settling the conflict with the tacit agreement of the United States in 1990.
Few Lebanese politicians have dared challenge Syria’s writ since then. Many, including Hariri for much of his dozen years in and out of power, have deferred to Damascus with a docility that suggested their nation had no independent, sovereign voice.
Psychologically, Hariri’s death may have changed that.
“It might be a turning-point for Lebanon in that it has created a real sense of national unity,” said Volker Perthes, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“It has shown, ironically perhaps, that Hariri was the one real independent politician acceptable to all groups.”
Hariri was a Sunni Muslim billionaire whose freewheeling capitalist drive to reconstruct Beirut set him at odds with President Emile Lahoud and, eventually, Damascus.
As he edged closer to more strident opposition politicians such as Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt, Hariri appeared poised to mount a serious challenge in parliamentary elections in May. “The funeral street scenes seemed to show everyone would vote for Hariri,” Perthes said. “But he cannot unite the nation from the grave and the others in the opposition lack his reach.”
He said Lebanon’s electoral system would make it hard for a national opposition list to triumph, particularly if Syria’s closest allies, such as the Shiite Muslim Amal movement, forged an electoral alliance with Hezbollah in the south.
Syria’s relations with Lebanon’s traditionally passive Sunni community may have touched a new low with Hariri’s death, but analysts said Sunni hostility would weaken over time. “One thing the assassination did was to make Sunnis feel they have contributed in blood to the independence of Lebanon,” Baroudi said. “But they still want good relations with Syria.”
Damascus has said it will pull out its 14,000 troops at Beirut’s request, but for face-saving reasons it might defer any withdrawal until after the elections, which it will expect to produce another Syria-friendly government. Baroudi said the Syrians were still trying to articulate a response to the heat they were feeling in Lebanon and beyond.
“They need to contain public anger and international criticism, but I don’t think the Lebanese government will resign — that would be too much like caving in,” he said.
Baroudi recalled that Syria’s role in Lebanon had survived severe setbacks in the past, including Israel’s 1982 invasion.
“They can keep their influence here even without troops. There are many agreements between Syria and Lebanon,” he said.
Any international attempt to force the Syrians into a humiliating withdrawal might have unintended consequences. “There might be a malign form of withdrawal, in which the Syrians would incite political escalation,” Perthes said. “Will the Syrians play it safe or will forces in the security establishment be tempted to prove their presence is needed?”
