NEW DELHI, 21 February 2004 — Just when India and Pakistan are moving speedily towards normalization of their ties, the CIA has drawn attention to the threat of an Indo-Pak nuclear war.
A report titled, “Mapping the Global Future: Pervasive Insecurity,” released by the National Intelligence Council and the CIA, states “Under plausible scenarios, Pakistan might use nuclear weapons to counter success by the larger Indian conventional forces, particularly given Pakistan’s lack of strategic depth.”
Although it takes note of both India and Pakistan being well aware of the implications of any indulgence in nuclear conflict, the report does not totally rule out its possibility.
It says, “India and Pakistan appear to understand the likely prices to be paid by triggering a conflict. But nationalistic feelings run high and are not likely to abate.”
The United States has always supported its stand for nonproliferation in the Subcontinent by making noise about Indo-Pak nuclear war. History, however, tells a different story. Since embarking on their respective proliferation drives, India and Pakistan have not indulged in any open conflict.
Certainly, time and again they have been engaged in proxy war and following the Dec. 13, 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament, they were at the edge of a war for around a year. Less than a year ago, India and Pakistan agreed to establish a hotline between their foreign secretaries “to prevent misunderstandings and reduce risks relevant to nuclear issues.”
By not resorting to open conflict and instead taking steps toward establishing cordial diplomatic ties, they have played the role of responsible nuclear neighbors.
During Natwar Singh’s recent Pakistan visit — the first bilateral visit by an Indian foreign minister in 15 years — India and Pakistan inked an agreement regarding the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus-link across the line of control. They have begun talking about the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project. Besides, Pakistan cricket team will soon be in India to play the Indo-Pak series. None of these moves can be viewed as symbols of cosmetic or hollow diplomacy.
Regarding Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus-link, according to sources, authorities on both sides are working “overtime” to get the first bus actually moving on April 7. Officials from external and home ministries, defense forces and security agencies, along with representatives of Jammu and Kashmir government are discussing all aspects of the bus service. They also are discussing frequency of the bus service and the cost factor.
India officially announced the itinerary for the Indo-Pak cricket series yesterday. The Pakistan team arrives for the 50-day tour on Feb. 28, and the first Test begins on March 8. The 50-day tour consists of three Tests and six one-day internationals and will begin with a three-day game in Dharamsala from March 3.
“The Pakistan Cricket Board has confirmed the tour program as suggested by the Indian cricket board,” Board Secretary S.K. Nair said in a press release. The decision taken by Indian government to issue 10,000 visas to Pakistani cricket fans to watch the series is expected to give further boost to Indo-Pak peace process.
Last year, Islamabad allowed about 8,000 Indians to travel to Pakistan to watch to the first Indo-Pak cricket series on Pakistani soil in 14 years. Although negotiations on Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project began in 1994, until recently, failure to make headway because of Indo-Pak tension led to them being viewed as “pipe dreams.”
This isn’t true anymore. New Delhi is hopeful that the project will be finalized in around three months’ time. The three-day India visit of Iran’s Foreign Minister, Dr. Kamal Kharrazi, which began Sunday, is expected to focus on it. The project is likely to be finalized during Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar’s Tehran visit in June.
Against this backdrop, where does CIA’s apprehension of nuclear war in the Subcontinent stand? Defeated.
