The Feb. 16 Pakistan-India agreement on the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service is the first concrete achievement of the dialogue process between the two countries. The process began with the Musharraf-Vajpayee meeting in Islamabad on Jan. 6, 2004. Work on readying the road, including construction of bridges, and de-mining of the area on the Indian side has already begun.
This agreement is a significant development, especially for the Kashmiris on both sides of the Line of Control. This indicates that both Islamabad and Delhi recognize that a sustainable bilateral peace process must address the concerns of the most aggrieved party - the Kashmiris. It also indicates Islamabad’s resolve to accommodate Kashmiris’ interests in its dialogue with India. Pakistan also continues to raise the issue of gross human rights violations by security forces in Indian-held Kashmir.
India recognized that the only way forward was to go back to the 1950s practice of allowing the state authorities in the two parts of Kashmir to operate the bus service without passports and visas. Pakistan has had to concede that a United Nations role in facilitating the bus service would not be possible. The bus service also signals Indian acknowledgement of normalization along the LoC, though for political and diplomatic reasons India often takes conflicting positions on cross-border infiltration. The Indian army chief recently acknowledged that infiltration was down “to a trickle”. But this was not the Indian defense minister’s stand a few days later. Clearly, the cease-fire Pakistan initiated on the LoC and international border on Nov. 25, 2003, is keeping the current peace process on track.
Intensive backchannel interaction involving top leaders from both countries made this breakthrough possible. Early December talks in Delhi had ended in a deadlock. The Pakistan president and the foreign minister had to intervene to break the deadlock. For the peace process to move forward, this top-level engagement is a necessity.
Now that there is an agreement on bus service, India should attempt to bring the water dispute, especially the Baglihar issue, back into the bilateral framework. All it will take is an Indian commitment to stop work on Baglihar Dam. If India is willing to make technical adjustments to the design to address constraints in the Indus Water Treaty, then stopping the work and resolving the dispute bilaterally should be possible. It is up to India to take the first step on Baghliar and for Pakistan to withdraw its complaint to the World Bank.
Compared to the earlier bilateral talks between Pakistan and India, the current and fourth attempt appears to be relatively more robust. Despite hitches the dialogue has stayed the course, neither side has shown inclination to pull out and already 34 meetings have been held. Both need the dialogue going for different reasons.
Yet the 57-year-old Kashmir dispute remains the most crucial issue. The bus deal only creates a more conducive environment in which that question can be addressed by the approximately four million Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC.
This is a political question and requires a political solution ultimately acceptable to all the three parties — Pakistan and India and the Kashmiris, the most important party to the dispute.
