In Afghanistan and in Somalia the world calls them warlords, a word that first came into general usage 75 years ago in connection with the then anarchy in China. They are tribal or clan chiefs who take advantage of a political vacuum at the center to maintain or extend their traditional power base through the use of force, and then prevent central authority being reasserted.
There is only one way to deal with warlords. They must be controlled or destroyed. Afghanistan is trying the softly-softly approach — and, despite the many voices predicting failure, has made a start. President Hamid Karzai, helped by the presence of some 18,000 NATO troops in Kabul and the north, has managed to rein in some of these men. The decision by NATO to increase its force and extend its peacekeeping operations to Herat and three other western cities this year and the whole of the country by next year will further help the process of imposing central authority.
Nonetheless it is far too early to agree with the recent view of one US general in Kabul that “the sun is now setting on warlords,” welcome though it would be. In the October presidential election, voting was still largely along tribal and ethnic lines and few of the candidates dared to campaign outside the capital or their tribal areas for fear of being murdered. Afghanistan is only an assassin’s bullet away from chaos.
In Somalia, the power of the warlords is infinitely worse. The power vacuum continues, and without a substantial number of peace-enforcers, President Abdullahi Yusuf has no chance of ending the painful experience of 14 years’ civil war and 12 failed attempts to restore government to the country. The Somali people desperately want peace and a central government; on Thursday, thousands of them provided a spirited welcome in Jowhar, some 100 km north of the capital, to Yusuf and his prime minister, Mohammed Ali Ghedi, on a short visit from the safety of Nairobi. But Mogadishu is still too dangerous. The warlords, despite many being made ministers to draw them into a settlement, know what strong central government will do to their private little kingdoms. That is why they are so bitterly opposed to the African Union’s plans for foreign peacekeepers, to a restoration of law and order and the presence of the exiled government in the capital. It is why a bomb went off outside the AU offices in warlord-controlled Mogadishu last week, killing three people. It was a warning to Yusuf not to come.
The presence of foreign peacemakers has enabled restoration in Afghanistan. They will do the same in Somalia. Nothing else will. Hussein Aidid, the biggest warlord drafted in as deputy prime minister, has obvious personal reasons for opposing their presence. There will, of course, be armed attacks in a country awash with guns. But it is the only answer. Central government in Somalia can only be reintroduced from a position of strength. Even then, it still may fail, as it may yet fail in Afghanistan. But without the peacekeepers, it will not even get off the ground.
