People power has come to Lebanon. The resignation of the prime minister, Omar Karami, and his government would not have happened without thousands of Lebanese people laying peaceful siege to Parliament. The events on the streets of Beirut are comparable to the recent “orange” revolution in Ukraine and earlier “velvet” revolutions in Georgia and in Eastern Europe. They are not over yet, but are going to go down in the country’s history as a turning point as seminal as the civil war.
Either they will spell the end of the old order of confessional-based politics or they may be the prelude to a new era of violence and chaos. At the moment it is impossible to tell. What can be asserted with confidence, however, is that the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has created a revolutionary mood in the country that transcends the traditional confessional divides. The killing has galvanized Lebanese, particularly young Lebanese — Sunni, Shiite, Christian, Druze — into action. They want change. On the other hand, there are those who may decide to resort to extreme violence to prevent change.
Events are not going to stop with Karami’s resignation. The protesters also want the resignations of President Emile Lahoud and the heads of the country’s intelligence services. Most of all, they want the complete withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country. Invigorated by their success in bringing down the government — possibly even astonished at their achievement — the protesters will carry on, confident that they can win, and because of that, thousands more are now likely to join their ranks.
Syria had already decided to redeploy its troops back toward its border, but this is unlikely to satisfy the protesters. Damascus, on the other hand, already under intense international pressure orchestrated largely from Washington, will resist a complete pullout, at least at the moment. To withdraw now would be seen as a humiliating cave-in to that pressure, in particular to the high-profile interference by Washington and Paris.
What is necessary now is that the rest of the world give the Lebanese the space to make up their own minds about what they want. What happens next must be their decision. The only role the outside world has is in preventing a recurrence of violence, and the best way to do that is by keeping out. That means that that the US, France and everyone else saying what ought to happen must adopt a hands-off policy. The lesson of Lebanon’s civil war is that when outsiders begin interfering, Lebanon suffers.
Winds of change are blowing though the region: Elections in Iraq, a successful rebellion against the old establishment in the Palestinian Parliament, constitutional changes on the cards in Egypt and now people power in Lebanon. Until a few weeks ago, change was seen as driven from outside, by the Americans. Those who still think that are clearly wrong. The Americans may have done some of the initial driving but it is now being driven from within. The Middle East is ready for change and wants a change but not only between Palestinian and Israeli.
