On the face of it, China seems to be stirring up tension in the Straits of Taiwan. It has just unveiled plans for a change in the law which, in certain conditions, would allow it to invade Taiwan which it regards as a renegade province. But this threat should be seen as something primarily for internal Chinese consumption.
The new law is awash in contradictions which are deliberate. One moment Beijing says that force would be used only if Taiwan declared itself independent and if peaceful means to resolve the crisis that would then occur failed. And then, officials in Beijing say the law would come into effect only “if possibilities for peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted.” There is a world of difference between the two. With the first, military action could be threatened if Taiwan tried to depart from the status quo — in fact an unlikely development because although the government of President Chen Shui-bian would like it, the majority of Taiwanese are opposed as is Washington. In the second, the status quo could itself be under threat: China could threaten to invade unless Taiwan ends its present de facto independence, bows to its “one country, two systems” policy and accepts ultimate control from Beijing.
Blasts from Beijing that Taiwan will have to accept unification eventually or face war have been made for the past five years. Nothing has happened so far and nothing will happen now. Such action would be economic suicide for China. Its present economic miracle depends on trade and investment. Any invasion of Taiwan on whatever grounds would result in immediate sanctions by its most important customers — the US and the EU and an end to investment — not least because Taiwanese investors account for the biggest slice of new industry in China. President Hu Jintao understands this. He represents the faction that believes a prosperous China has to cooperate with the rest of the world.
The only worry is that the second option cannot be dismissed. A power struggle in the hierarchy of the Communist Party in Beijing could easily lead to one side using the Taiwan issue to whip up support. It has happened before and will happen again; power struggles are an inevitable part of Communist Party life. Last year saw such a one between Hu and Jiang who, despite his resignation as president, had retained considerable power behind the scenes.
Just five weeks ago, Beijing allowed the first direct flights between Taiwan and the mainland since the civil war that split the two sides more than half-a-century ago. And this week, when presenting the new law, Beijing said that it wants to negotiate with Taiwan “as equal partners.” Yet previous suggestions from Taiwan’s president that the two do just that resulted in fury in Beijing.
There is clearly a gap between what Beijing says it might do and what it is actually doing. There may be threats, but rapprochement is in the air.
