Local elections tsunami to hit UK’s leading parties

The world is changing and the UK is no exception, with Thursday’s local elections set to be bad news for the traditional political parties, Labour and the Conservatives, which have controlled the government in London for more than 100 years. However, it is not just their seats that are under threat, but also the certainty of a political system that has long helped Britain sail through difficult crises. Voters should be careful about voting in a multiparty system instead of the more boring but stable two-party system.

Local elections in the UK usually witness a lot of protest and tactical voting, as well as reduced levels of participation, and traditionally are not reflective of the voting direction expressed during general elections. And things are likely to be no different this time, as the clouds seem to be gathering over Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Labour government. They are set to receive a stern message that the electorate is not happy with what has been commonly dubbed their lack of direction.

More than 5,000 local council seats in England are being contested on Thursday, alongside full national elections for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales.

Despite leading the center-left Labour Party to a huge election win in July 2024, opinion ‌polls show Starmer’s ‌popularity has plunged since taking office. Following a string of scandals — although nothing as bad as those that plagued the previous Conservative governments — there is a sense that ‌Labour ⁠has so far failed ⁠to deliver the improvements in living standards that it promised.

There is a sense that ‌Labour ⁠has so far failed ⁠to deliver the improvements in living standards that it promised

Mohamed Chebaro

If we believe the polls and the generally gloomy anti-Labour attitude, the party should brace for big losses. The rising far-right Reform UK, the party of colorful pro-Trump, pro-Putin populist Nigel Farage, is likely to outperform Labour in its former industrial heartlands and the Green Party could do the same in major cities.

But British voters ought to take a deep breath and be careful what they wish for in a turbulent world that has not spared the UK since its badly costed Brexit adventure. Many of the problems the country is facing are an accumulation of the bad political management of the Conservatives, who ruled for 14 years from 2010, and an increasingly ungovernable and conflictive world that is spilling out discord and uncertainty on all fronts.

For nearly two years, Starmer has been trying to deliver on the country’s priorities, including stabilizing the public finances, reducing child poverty and cutting hospital waiting lists. He has also faced immense global challenges, from wars in Europe and the Middle East to tariffs, weaponized immigration and a toxic public debate fueled by trolls and misinformation and disinformation campaigns that have been ripping apart the fabric of society and its tolerant, inclusive approach.

British voters, like those in the rest of Europe, are exposed to the adverse winds of whipped-up rhetoric about the distrust and dysfunction of the state. They are wrongly led to believe, through the toxic social media realm, that there are easy fixes to all the challenges and adversities facing their country.

The far right across Europe is riding the wave of voters’ impatience on migration, an issue that is easily employed to sow hate. In the case of Labour, the figures are positive, as immigration has fallen and the number of legal removals has increased, unlike under its predecessors. This is despite the fact that, since leaving the EU, the UK is being denied the tools that could have helped better share the burden. As a result of its approach, Labour has been accused by its core, left-wing supporters of veering too far to the right. It is also criticized by its new right-of-center voters for abandoning them to pursue policies that are apparently too compassionate toward migrants.

The far right is riding the wave of voters’ impatience on migration, an issue that is easily employed to sow hate

Mohamed Chebaro

Despite the government’s push to calm the economy and balance the books, growth remains sluggish, compounded by an uncertain world and less-than-accommodating ally across the Atlantic.

Against such a backdrop, many are questioning whether Britain’s party political fabric is being shredded, leading the country into a multiparty state scenario. As things stand, five parties are polling between 12 percent and 26 percent, which is a historic first, since election battles are usually fought mostly between the two main parties. These fundamentals have rarely been questioned in the past.  

In England, Labour and the Conservatives are both likely to suffer big losses in the local elections. Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are expected to pick up dissatisfied voters from both major parties.

The country could wake up and see Italian-style results, or even a Dutch-style split of votes between five or more parties. The UK might have to get used to polarized politics and the imbalances that could disrupt governance and legitimacy, despite its first-past-the-post electoral system. According to that system, Labour won a huge majority in 2024 despite winning just 34 percent of the votes, while in 2019 it lost heavily despite racking up 32 percent.

Many believe the remedy is electoral reform and a shift to proportional representation, which is favored by no less than 40 percent of the electorate. But that has faded from the agendas of the ascending parties.

For Starmer and Labour, the challenge will be to spin the local election losses as an opportunity to reboot and promise to deliver, albeit with narrowing political maneuverability. For others, it might be a boost that will be difficult to monetize in the next general election. Three years is a long time in politics and a lot could happen, but one thing is for sure: the world is changing. Voters must take the long view and decide whether they want to ditch a stable political system in favor of a multiparty system, with its many difficult coalitions, in a polarized world.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.