BEIJING, 11 April 2005 — Relations between Asia’s major powers China and Japan are at their worst in decades as each side stokes nationalist sentiment to appease domestic audiences, causing clashes over history and territorial disputes to intensify, analysts said Sunday. The problem has been highlighted by weekend protests in which the Chinese government allowed some 30,000 people to protest in three major cities against Japan’s treatment of its wartime history. “Since 1972 when diplomatic ties were established, this is the worst bilateral relations have ever been,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Beijing’s People’s University.
“Tensions, if they cannot be managed well, can become confrontations. Before, people say in East Asia there are only two security threats, Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. Now we see it’s Japan and China as well. It’s an emerging hotspot.”
Analysts blame growing nationalism in both countries, as well as a changing political structure in which each government is increasingly eager to play on anti-Japanese or anti-Chinese sentiment.
“There have been no significant new problems affecting the relationship. These are old problems,” said analyst Joseph Cheng from City University in Hong Kong. “Unfortunately the leaderships in both countries are trying to please domestic audiences by taking a strong line in handling bilateral relations.”
In recent months Beijing and Tokyo have sparred over Japan’s approval of little-used nationalist history textbooks which Beijing says gloss over wartime atrocities. In December Japan for the first time listed China as a potential threat in revised defense guidelines. It recently described the issue of Taiwan as a major regional security problem, infuriating China which sees it as a domestic issue.
Each side has also demanded the other halt projects to explore for oil and gas in disputed areas of the East China Sea. Japan’s attempt to gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council is also sparking concern from China, which according to analysts will try to block the application. Heads of government from the two countries have not visited each other for years. China will not host Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi due to his refusal to stop visiting the Yasukuni shrine, which honors Japanese war dead including war criminals.
In past decades Japan normally made the first move to compromise when disputes arose, Shi said. But that has changed in the last couple of years, he and others said. “The Liberal Democratic Party now has to compete with (parties) to the right of the Japanese political spectrum so the LDP has to move more to the right,” said Cheng. “Domestic economic difficulties have also prompted the Koizumi government to take a strong stand externally.”
Japan, for example, cut development aid to China recently after some accused Beijing of using the aid to conduct oil exploration in the East China Sea. Tokyo has responded with plans to grant licenses to Japanese firms to explore the sea. Chinese ships meanwhile have been tailing Japanese ships in the area, increasing the danger of skirmishes, US media has reported.
China’s new generation of leaders is also eager to look tougher against Japan as the previous regime was seen by the public as being too weak, analysts said. “I think the new leadership wants to present an image that is distinct from that of Jiang Zemin’s and it certainly wants to see that it respects nationalist feelings among the people,” Cheng said.
Trade, however, is still booming and the two economies are becoming increasingly interdependent. Last year China replaced the United States as Japan’s largest trading partner. Analysts said the two sides should have different policies for different disputes instead of allowing them to be all linked to nationalistic feelings, so as to avoid seriously damaging relations. “All these problems can lead to serious consequences,” Shi said.
