The announcement that Mahmoud Abbas will meet President Bush on May 26 recaptures the American presidential ear for the Palestinians. No Palestinian leader has set foot in the White House since Bush became president in 2000, a far cry from the days when Yasser Arafat was repeatedly feted during the Clinton presidency. But since Bush’s branding Arafat a pariah, the Palestinians have not had a White House presence to counter an explicit pro-Israeli stand by the administration.
On his coming visit to Washington, Abbas is expected to receive a warm reception and an extended hand offering help. For his recent efforts to reform the Palestinian Authority, Abbas is expecting rewards from Bush who will most likely oblige with US financial support to boost the Palestinian economy. Abbas will also discuss settlements and Palestinian prisoner releases. Both are contentious issues that will need Bush’s intervention, if not outright interference. Both problems are compounded by recent odd and dangerous statements made by top Israeli officials; for example, Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz has said the withdrawal of Jewish settlers from Gaza will allow Israel to extend its borders into the West Bank. That Israel believes its summer pullout from Gaza will allow it to keep its large West Bank settlements — illegal under international law — and extend its future borders deep into Palestinian territory, is something the Palestinians have been dreading and have been warning about for a long time. What Mofaz is saying — the settlers of Gaza will be able to say in years to come that they helped establish the eastern frontiers of the state of Israel — is that Gaza first will be Gaza last and that there will be no more pullouts after Gaza. The argument advanced by the Israeli left is that Gaza might trigger further disengagement from the West Bank. If Mofaz is serious, the left need no longer worry.
And if we are to believe Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, there might not be a Gaza pullout at all if Hamas wins the mid-July elections for the Palestinian legislature. Shalom’s fear is that Hamas will metamorphose into “Hamasistan” where it will use an empty Gaza as its private playground to invite Hezbollah or even Al-Qaeda. Though it will probably not become a parliamentary majority, Hamas will nevertheless do well in the poll, given the drubbing it administered to Fatah in the first round of municipal elections followed by the strong inroads in the second round last week. It is precisely the new political line that Hamas is toeing that tempers Shalom’s warnings. Hamas clearly understands that by running in the legislative elections it is recognizing the peace accords with Israel and Israel itself. The Oslo accords and the more recent road map recognize the right of Israel to exist and the need to negotiate with it.
Given the recent quotes by Mofaz and Shalom, it is hard to tell what Tel Aviv is up to. Does it want a pullout from Gaza and if it does withdraw, will this so-called painful concession mean it gets to keep the West Bank? Perhaps Bush can straighten things out.
