The French like to claim that France is the best-administered country in the world. They have a point. French politicians, on the other hand, often complain that France is ungovernable. The late President de Gaulle asked: “How can you govern a country with 246 cheeses?” He too had a point. Although France is such a civilized, contented and well-administered country, occasionally it all goes pear-shaped. Ever since the 18th century, the French have regarded the state as their servant; if they think it is not doing its job or, horror of horror, is interfering unduly in their private lives, they become extremely bolshie and turn on — not just the government but the whole system. France has had several revolutions since the first one in 1789.
De Gaulle himself felt forced to resign as president in 1969. Today that resignation is often erroneously linked to the street riots and demonstrations the year before which are still called a revolution by the French left; in fact the Gaullists won a massive election victory shortly afterward. What did de Gaulle in was the No result in a subsequent referendum. It was about nothing of great moment — regional reorganization and senate reform. But de Gaulle insisted voters say Yes or he would resign. So they said No. They used the referendum to pass sentence on a president who, on reflection, they had grown tired of.
On Sunday, there is another referendum, this time on the new European Constitution. Normally, it would have sailed through; the French like to think themselves as being at the heart of Europe; most of them, moreover, have only the vaguest idea of what the constitution says. But the polls say that the “Nos” will win. That is because, once again, the vote is being used to pass sentence on an unpopular administration. There are other issues, equally unrelated to the EU Constitution — opposition to Turkish EU membership, which is very strong in France, and imports from China and India taking French jobs but dissatisfaction with Chirac and his even more unpopular Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin is the main issue for the No voters.
If the Nos win — and it cannot be taken for granted, there are still too many undecided voters — it will have sad consequences for the French political establishment, most of which wants a Yes. President Chirac, who shrewdly has not tied his own job to the outcome, will be under intense pressure to sack his prime minister, who has been in charge of the Yes campaign. Heads too will roll in the opposition Socialist Party, deeply split over the constitution. Its leader François Hollande has been a prominent Yes campaigner. He and other Yes supporters on the left will be condemned by their opponents as out of touch with the people. It will create a major crisis for the left. That, and a similar split on the right, could impact on the next presidential election.
France now has more than 400 cheeses. So presumably it is even more ungovernable. If a bruised and battered Jacques Chirac comes to that conclusion next Monday morning, he will know why.
