For those who love conspiracy theories, the announcement by the International Criminal Court that it is going to investigate alleged war crimes in Sudan’s troubled Darfur region fits the pattern. The announcement comes just days before a make-or-break meeting in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, between Darfur rebels and the Sudanese government. The timing of the announcement looks suspiciously like an attempt to increase the pressure on Khartoum to agree to a deal on Darfur. Clearly, the court intends to play tough concerning the crisis.
That is no bad thing. Darfur desperately needs to be resolved — for the future of itself as well as for Sudan’s. It is the world’s worst current humanitarian crisis. Some 180,000 people have died as a result of the conflict according to the UN (aid agencies say double that figure); two million people have been displaced. It is clear that a military solution will not work; there has to be a political one. Unfortunately the authorities in Khartoum still appear unable to understand either that or the weight of international determination to see the crisis brought to an end.
The Sudanese have consistently mishandled the situation. The danger is that the longer Khartoum delays reaching a settlement, the greater the likelihood not only that the world will demand sanctions but also that the Darfuris will want nothing more to do with Sudan and opt for secession.
In Bosnia, there was virtually no sense of nationhood before 1992; Serb genocide and oppression, however, changed that.
The Khartoum government can make uncomfortable compromises. The peace deal agreed earlier this year with southern rebels has to count as the most uncomfortable any government could make, holding as it does the possibility, indeed the probability, that the south will vote for independence in six years’ time. A government that can make that sort of concession should easily be able to compromise on Darfur where all the rebels want is fairer treatment from Khartoum.
Eyes are now on Abuja. Nothing is assured. The rebels may not turn up. Even, however, if the meeting happens and results in a settlement, the announcement of the ICC inquiry still raises the likelihood of further humiliation ahead for Sudan. The inquiry follows a UN Security Council vote two months ago to refer the issue to the ICC. The court has reportedly been given documentation that incriminates more than 50 people — members of the Janjaweed and rebel leaders as well as government officials. But Khartoum says that it will never hand any of its citizens over to the ICC for trial abroad.
This will invite unpleasant consequences. The UN has so far steered clear of imposing sanctions against Sudan — but a Sudan in breach of the ICC would be a different matter. Sanctions would be an inevitability. The only way out would be for Khartoum to agree to try any one indicted in the country, but that would be no less a humiliation.
