Although the probability of both the French and Dutch voting down the European Union’s (EU) proposed constitution had been forecast, the effect of their votes on the possible entry of Turkey into the EU had not. How to move forward from Europe’s internal crisis is going to occupy the minds of Europe’s politicians and diplomats for months ahead, and the accession talks with Turkey — a Muslim country of over 70 million — scheduled to begin on Oct. 3 in London, are one of the many major issues now facing EU’s troubled leaders.
Even before the French referendum on the constitution, President Jacques Chirac had promised his people that a referendum on Turkey joining the EU would be held in France. It is hard to see how such a new referendum agreeing entry could be won in the future. The president’s authority and powers of persuasion are greatly diminished. Analysis of the 54 percent “no” vote in France on the European Constitution suggested a strong feeling against enlargement and in particular Turkey’s membership.
In Holland it was clear again that the 62 percent “no” vote was fuelled to a considerable extent by a dislike of Turkey’s possible membership. The background to this is the importance of the issue of immigration in Dutch society. Attacks on mosques followed the murder of a prominent critic of Islamic extremism. There are a million Muslims in the Netherlands and relations with that considerable minority, which had been held up as an example to other European countries not many years ago, are now under considerable strain.
Germany ratified the constitution in its Parliament. A general election is likely this September. The Christian Democrats have a lead in the opinion polls of 45 percent to 30 percent over their Social Democrat rivals. Angela Merkel is the new leader of the Christian Democrats. She has adopted a tougher tone toward Turkish entry than Chancellor Gerhard Schroder. She has promised to “begin an honest discussion about Turkish EU membership”, and she believes that the French rejection could be seen as a secret vote against Turkish entry. It is a safe bet that in the heat of an election campaign even stronger comments on this topic will follow.
For the moment the European Commission keeps to the line that there is no connection between the results in France and the Netherlands and enlargement. Turkish entry is not mentioned in the constitution. Günter Verheugen, the German commissioner who negotiated Turkey’s entry talks, has pointed out to Frau Merkel that it is now too late for her to change anything.
On July 1 the United Kingdom assumes the EU presidency and Prime Minister Tony Blair has gone out of his way to champion Turkish entry. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw telephoned his Turkish opposite number, Abdullah Gul, to assure him the talks would go ahead. The United Kingdom has pushed hard for general enlargement of the EU for strong political reasons. New Members tend to support the United Kingdom in its sometimes heated discussions with Germany and France over the future shape of the EU and, specifically, they tend to back free-market economic policies.
Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, believes that EU rejection of Turkey would be “a terrible thing”. The United States, which seeks the maximum cooperation from Turkey over its important neighbor Iraq, and sees Turkey as a crucial strategic partner — including its military ties with Israel, has for long supported Turkey’s membership of the EU. Inevitably it has ruffled feathers in the process as the EU regards this topic as largely an internal matter. A few days ago Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, informed the Turkish Parliament that the referenda in France and the Netherlands have “...nothing to do with Turkey’s candidacy; we will continue on our path with the same enthusiasm.”
Turkey will concentrate on preparing for membership and has much to do in that regard.
It seems to me that we are not going to see Turkey achieving full membership; we might well see it ending up with a special status with the EU. Frau Merkel has talked of Turkey having a “privileged partnership”.
It is wrong to believe that hostility to Turkey is only a matter of racial and/or religious prejudice. With 25 Members at present, and Bulgaria and Romania are on course to join on Jan. 1,2007, the EU is cumbersome and difficult to run. Its population of over 450m is considerably bigger than that of the USA. A line needs to be drawn somewhere. When Morocco, a country with historic colonial ties to France, applied some years ago it was told politely that it was an Arab and African country not a European one.
European leaders are going to have to listen to European voters and the latter are unenthusiastic over Turkish membership.
— Sir Cyril Townsend is a former member of the British Parliament and former director of the Council for the Advancement of Arab-British Understanding.
