Democrats are gleeful over the recent indictment of Republican Majority Leader and longtime nemesis Tom DeLay. For the Democrats, shorn of power and direction, the timing of DeLay’s legal woes — which cost him his leadership position — could hardly be better. As the Bush administration reels from Hurricane Katrina, gas prices, and Iraq, the Republican Party is under fire from all sides, as a variety of its leaders find themselves embroiled in scandal.
DeLay’s indictment came one week after an investigation was launched exploring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s suspicious stock sales. Frist, whose family runs a major health care network, sold his stock in the family company within days of a report that sent its value plummeting. While it is not clear Frist utilized inside information, the chain of events suggests impropriety. Frist was expected to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, but scandal and his questionable management of the Senate has dampened his hopes.
There are few more divisive political figures than Congressman Tom DeLay. The former pest exterminator has dictated the Republican agenda in the House of Representatives since Speaker Newt Gingrich was ousted in late 1998. He has ruled with an iron fist, strictly enforced party unity, and ruthlessly manipulated the political system to his party’s advantage. DeLay’s tactics are not necessarily admired — he was repeatedly rebuked by the House Ethics Committee before engineering the overthrow of its former Republican Chairman Joel Hefley — but he has succeeded in solidifying the Republican hold on Congress.
While Republicans characterize DeLay’s removal as House majority leader as temporary, it would be improbable to see the Texan resume command even if he is acquitted in court. It speaks volumes about the fear and power of DeLay that many Republicans offered public support to their embattled leader. Without DeLay, the Republicans ability to win close votes on the House floor — which they have done repeatedly — is in jeopardy. More troubling, because DeLay’s intricate fundraising systems provided support to candidates across the country, other congressional Republicans — including party Whip Roy Blunt, his temporary replacement, and vulnerable members such as Colorado’s Bob Beauprez — have been either recipients of bad press or implicated in the scandal.
But President Bush’s tepid statement of solidarity is a sure sign that the White House and other prominent Republicans are relieved DeLay has been defanged. Bush and DeLay, who do not like each other personally, are strategic partners, not ideological bedfellows. DeLay has worked to push Bush’s domestic agenda further to the right. Internationally, the former majority leader, an ardent and unapologetic Christian-Zionist, has often undermined the White House’s attempts to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian imbroglio.
The White House is also no stranger to controversy. Indictments in the Valerie Plame case are expected by Oct. 28, keeping Bush administration officials on edge. Plame, the wife of former Ambassador Joe Wilson, was a CIA operative allegedly exposed as payback when her husband publicly disputed the White House’s justification for invading Iraq. The two most prominent names implicated in the scandal are Karl Rove and Lewis Libby, respectively the top advisors the president and vice president.
Meanwhile, the lingering scandal involving tainted Republican mega-lobbyist Jack Abramoff has led to the arrest of David Safavian, the Bush administration’s top procurement officer. Among other allegations, Safavian reportedly gave sweetheart deals on federal office space to Abramoff. Like Abramoff, Safavian is well connected to Republican power circles; his wife serves as counsel to the congressional committee investigating the Hurricane Katrina debacle.
There are problems outside Washington too. In Ohio, Republican Governor Robert Taft’s approval ratings have dropped to 15 percent. For Taft, the grandson of a former US president, re-election is not viable; serving out the remainder of his term is a more probable, albeit difficult, goal. While Ohio’s weak economy dimmed Taft’s luster, his collapse is attributable to a bizarre scandal in which a prominent Republican fundraiser, who is a professional coin dealer, convinced the state to invest its budget surplus in rare coins. The coins have disappeared, and perhaps along with them, Republican fortunes in the key swing state.
With Taft heading toward impeachment, his party barely held on to a heavily Republican congressional seat left vacant when President Bush appointed Rob Portman US trade representative. The Democratic challenger, rabid anti-Bush Iraqi war veteran Paul Hackett, ran a single-issue campaign — President Bush. Hackett, whose startling performance earned him celebrity status among liberal activists, will now take on Sen. Mike Dewine in the 2006 Senate campaign. Dewine, a moderate Republican who has seen his popularity fade, must fend off a conservative primary challenger before facing the spirited Hackett.
Bush’s declining political standing coupled with the emergence of multiple scandals involving prominent Republicans has created an ideal climate from which Democrats can emerge from the shadows. Democrats have apparently won the battle of candidate recruitment, enlisting viable challengers for the 2006 congressional races, particularly in the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have faltered. As analyst Charlie Cook noted, Republicans, “have been turned down more this year than all but the most snake-bit, pimply faced teenage boy.” It is far too early to predict Democratic victory in the 2006 elections, but Democrats have reason to be optimistic. Ironically, no one has benefited more from recent scandals than Hillary Clinton. Historic Republican gains in the 1994 election cycle, which resulted in Republican control of Congress for the first time in four years, was in large part attributable to capitalizing on the alleged scandals involving the Clinton White House. And DeLay eagerly played the role of zealous chief persecutor during the 1998 impeachment saga. Perhaps there is truth in the adage what goes around, comes around.
— David Dumke is Principal of the MidAmr Group.
