The United Nations Security Council convenes at 10 a.m. this morning. By lunchtime it is expected to have made a momentous decision, which could lead to the birth of a new state in Europe.
The 15-member council is to recommend that talks on the future status of Kosovo, a territory bitterly contested between Serbs and the majority ethnic Albanians, begin as soon as possible.
Meeting in Rome last Thursday, diplomats from the main Western countries that deal with the former Yugoslavia plus Russia agreed on what will happen today so as to make sure that there are no last minute hitches.
Ever since the end of the Kosovo war in 1999 the territory has been under the jurisdiction of the UN although legally it remains a part of Serbia. The process, which will begin today, is expected to end Serbia’s sovereignty over Kosovo.
The council will be addressed today by Kai Eide, the Norwegian diplomat who drew up the report on Kosovo.
Within days of the meeting, Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, is set to appoint Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president, to lead talks.
After a period of shuttle diplomacy he is expected to draw up a draft plan for the future of the territory that will propose what is known as “conditional independence”. This means that Kosovo will no longer be part of Serbia but its independence will, for a transitional period, be curtailed, rather like that of Bosnia where policy is shaped by a high-level representative of the international community.
While Serbia will resist the ending of its sovereignty over Kosovo, diplomats say that Russia, on whom the Serbian leadership was hoping for support, has already betrayed it.
In 1999 NATO mounted a 78-day bombing campaign against what was then still known as Yugoslavia.
The bombing came after talks failed to produce a settlement between Serbs and separatist Albanian guerrillas.
Ever since, Kosovo has been run by the UN, although progressively power has been transferred to its own elected authorities. Some 100,000 Serbs remain in Kosovo out of a total population of two million, more than 90 percent of whom are ethnic Albanians who have consistently shown that they want independence.
Of the Serbs who remain, most live in enclaves, some of which have to be protected by NATO-led peacekeepers. In March 2004 ethnic Albanian rioting left 19 dead and some 4,000 Serbs and Roma were ethnically cleansed. In his report Eide described inter-ethnic relations as “grim”.
Serbia will fight a fierce rearguard action to retain sovereignty, if little else, over Kosovo. Indeed, according to Dusan Batakovic, advisor on Kosovo to Serbian President Boris Tadic: “People think Serbia has given up Kosovo but this is not the case — to the contrary in fact.”
Serbia says the Albanians can have virtually anything they want except full independence. Albanians say that everything is negotiable except independence. Indeed, a movement is now gathering pace in Kosovo to oppose the coming talks. It is led by Albin Kurti, a 30-year-old former political prisoner who is organizing supporters to be ready to take to the streets. He says he is against talks because they aim at compromise and there can be no compromise on the question of independence.
Diplomatic sources believe that the talks will last up to nine months after which the main Western powers will then act to impose “conditional independence” on Kosovo. The Albanians will probably accept this, plus a high level of autonomy for Serbian areas. Serb leaders, however, resigned as they may be to the reality of the situation, say they will never formally accept the loss of Kosovo, which they regard as the cradle of their civilization.
In principle, Kosovo Albanians will be led into talks by Ibrahim Rugova, their president and the best-known symbol of Kosovo. However, Rugova is extremely ill with lung cancer. If he dies or becomes incapacitated, this is expected to weaken the Albanian negotiating position.
