The confirmation that three Turkish children have died in the east of the country from infection by the H5N1 strain of bird flu and that at least 45 other Turks are being treated for symptoms of the illness ought not to come as a surprise. Since November it has been clear that the disease is present among both wild and domestic bird populations in Balkans as well as in Turkey. The key question now is whether those who have been infected with the virus contracted it through close contact with infected birds or were infected by other human beings carrying the virus. If the latter, then the challenges and problems become far more serious.
For most of the last 12 months, scientists in Europe and North America have been telling increasingly anxious citizens that if the innocuously named H5N1 strain of flu succeeded in mutating so that it could be spread from human to human, the world would be faced with a pandemic similar to the devastating Spanish flu which killed millions in 1918-1919. As a result of these fears, politicians have invested vast sums of money in stockpiling serums to combat infection, even though scientists have warned that until the final form of any human-borne virus is known, such medications may turn out to be worse than useless.
Virtually every news report of the latest outbreak of bird flu has been prefaced by the word “deadly.” This surely makes for a more dramatic story but it is simply not accurate. H5N1 is killing people but many of those infected are recovering, some apparently in the Far East, without overreliance on antibiotics. There are a number of common infections — from German measles to less virulent strains of flu — that could, if journalists wished only to produce dramatic copy, be described as “deadly,” certainly for young people, the old and the infirm.
In the rich and comfortable Western world, where health care has been transformed into anxious and extremely expensive death prevention, there is now an overwhelming aversion to risk. While Western countries have, by and large, refused to recognize fully and really take aggressive action concerning the well-established disaster of HIV/AIDS in Africa, when their own communities are threatened, no reaction seems excessive.
Turkey is the first country in the region to confront the reality of human infection. Although it may lack some of the necessary medical resources, especially when it comes to testing and research, the Turks are notable for their sense of proportion and stoicism in the face of apparent danger. Though many will now be anxious for their loved ones, they are unlikely to be panicked. Hopefully the dogged reaction of the authorities in beginning the vast cull of infected birds that is called for will serve as an example to wealthier and more nervous countries, if and when H5N1 arrives on their doorsteps. The predictions of doom may be right about the scale of the danger ahead. At the same time, however, nothing can possibly be achieved by a terrified stampede. The challenge of bird flu can only be confronted calmly and thoughtfully.
