Editorial: Post-Sharon Israel

Author: 
9 January 2006
Publication Date: 
Mon, 2006-01-09 03:00

By telling ministers that they are expected to carry out the wishes of Ariel Sharon in order to manage affairs as necessary, Ehud Olmert yesterday sought to tell Israel — and the world beyond — that it was business as usual. Olmert held his first Cabinet meeting since taking over as acting prime minister, and it appears the weekly Sunday gathering was no different from others as ministers tackled the country’s security, social and economic issues.

Sharon’s near-certain departure leaves a leadership vacuum that Olmert must fill, at least until elections are held on March 28. Before then, he will be forced to start making decisions — some of which are pivotal. The first is whether to allow Palestinians in East Jerusalem to vote in the Jan. 25 parliamentary elections. Israel allowed Palestinians to vote in East Jerusalem in last year’s presidential elections that swept Mahmoud Abbas into the presidency. The vote would, from Tel Aviv’s point of view, ironically be helping in the success of Hamas which is expected to do exceptionally well at the polls. Sharon had threatened before that he would not allow elections if Hamas ran in the elections. In turn, the Palestine Authority threatens to cancel the entire election if Israel refuses to allow the East Jerusalem vote.

Such uncertainty means that an Israeli leader must soon emerge — and it must be one who is different from Sharon. Olmert is, however, not the solution to the problem. An ex-Likudnik, he led the way for Sharon in presenting ideas for the withdrawal from Gaza. He has made clear that he too believes in the unilateral delineation of Israel’s borders to be determined by a pullout from Gaza and a little from the West Bank, but not including a return to the “Green Line” that was the border between 1949 and the war of 1967 and certainly not withdrawing from Jerusalem. In fact, Olmert has said, “Through such a move we will define our borders, which under no circumstances will be identical to the Green Line and will include Jerusalem as a united city under our sovereignty.” These things will thus continue under Olmert’s leadership: No return to the 1967 borders, no giving up of the big settlement blocs and no division of Jerusalem. Presumably this would remain his policy if the Kadima party wins the elections.

Before his collapse, Sharon appeared headed to win a third term in office at the head of Kadima — but the key question is: Without the glue of Sharon’s leadership, will the Kadima members stick together or dissolve in squabbles and disagreements? Olmert will have to work on both elections but the calendar puts the Palestinian poll first. Although Israel and the Palestinians have not managed to use the Gaza withdrawal to jump-start the long-stalled peace talks, there was some hope that peacemaking would resume after Palestinian elections. If, on the other hand, there are to be no elections and so no talks, the current Israeli policy of reshaping the map by unilateral moves — in short, maintaining of the status quo — will probably be the pattern for the immediate future.

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