Though Iran has been granted one month to review its nuclear policy it is hardly possible to guess the course that country is likely to take. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s popularity has, perhaps, transcended Iran’s borders to some other Muslim countries as well and his views cannot be dismissed as a passing phase or a Third World leader’s ploy to consolidate his popular base. Iran is apparently making a bid to strike a strategic balance with Israel by acquiring nuclear technology. And it is, essentially, the core of the conflict in the Middle East.
Iranian hard-liners believe that then President Muhammad Khatami launched a period of counterrevolution taking a soft approach toward the West. His policies had, according to his detractors, defeated the basic purpose of the Iranian revolution, which was to help the poor at home and to support the oppressed Palestinians abroad. The new president, his aides and supporters have been emphasizing their concern for the poor by adopting a simple lifestyle. Ahmadinejad’s determination to build up a deterrent defense force has the aim of achieving the second goal of the republic namely helping the oppressed. It should also be noted that he is the first outside the clergy to become the country’s head of state. His controversial statements about the Holocaust and the military capabilities of the Western countries are more than political maneuvers. It is rather the expression of his belief and thinking which are in marked contrast to the positions held by the two former presidents, Hashmi Rafsanjani and Muhammad Al-Khatami.
Ironically enough, Iran has benefited a lot from the American-led war in the region. Iran could strengthen its position in Afghanistan where already the Persian language and culture hold some sway. The most precious windfall of the US-led Iraq war is Iran’s newly acquired influence in Iraq. This influence will only increase amidst the endless squabbles between Shiites and other groups. While Iran wields great influence over the Lebanese Hezbollah, Syria that needs some sincere friends to get out of its predicament in Lebanon without relinquishing its hold on that country, has found a strong ally in Iran. Tehran maintains the upper hand because Syria needs Tehran’s support more than the other way round. The Hamas’ landslide victory in the Palestinian elections has further consolidated the Iranian influence in the region.
An Arab wall beginning in Baghdad passing through Damascus and ending in Gaza provides strong protection for Iran from any Western, US or Israeli move against it. This would serve as a shield against any Israeli attack designed to reduce the Iranian atomic reactors to rubbles.
Unlike Pakistan’s bomb, the Iranian bomb would be an Islamic bomb or to be precise a revolutionary Iranian/Arab bomb, if the expression is correct.
Exploiting sacred symbols for political purposes is a common practice in the region where the Shiite religious movement is now a powerful political instrument. However the dilemma of the Iranian conservatives is that the Iranian people are denied fruits of economic development. Domestic economy will be the first casualty of any war. This also means that the region will continue to be in the grip of fanaticism.
Amidst all these developments the absence of a bold stand by the Arab countries is striking. Arabs are not taking any initiative to defuse the crisis in the region. Only a single conference has been held in Cairo to discuss the future of Iraq. I was surprised to hear from a reliable source that several of the delegates from Iraq who attended the Cairo meeting did not know each other or could not sit together before the meeting. The meeting did not take a bold stand on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, or at least by the Gulf Arabs who are exposed to the dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran. The Gulf summit in Abu Dhabi issued a statement expressing concern about Iran going nuclear and that was all.
There are no positive signs on the horizon, as the neoconservatives from Washington to Paris do not see any human beings in the region. They are only concerned with the security of Israel and uninterrupted supply of oil.
This is a time that calls for tolerance and patience. Any display of unbridled emotions will only bring catastrophe.
