WASHINGTON, 7 November 2006 — In one of the most bitterly fought midterm elections to date, voters throughout the US today will choose their representatives in the House, governors and some members of the Senate.
Both Democrats and Republicans say that after months of acrimonious battles, today’s election results will be determined by which party did a better job of bringing its voters to the polls.
Up for grabs are 435 House seats, 33 Senate seats, governorships in 36 states, and thousands of state legislative and local races. In 37 states, voters also will determine the fate of ballot initiatives, including whether to ban gay marriage, raise the minimum wage, endorse expanded embryonic stem cell research and — in South Dakota — impose the country’s most stringent abortion restrictions.
The greatest obstacle for both parties is the historical tendency for voter turnout to be mediocre in off-year elections.
In the battle for the House, Democrats are predicted to pick up more than the 15 seats needed to regain the majority. The Senate will be a tougher challenge, where they need to gain six seats to take control of the chamber. In governors’ races, Democrats are predicted to emerge with the majority for the first time in 12 years.
Republicans are fighting three forces: opposition to the war in Iraq, declining approval of the president, and historically low rating for a Congress that was unable to produce notable achievements and was often mired in partisanship prejudices.
The predicted Democratic swing in the House is most evident in states east of the Mississippi River, where scandals, retirements and disaffection with the war have combined to put almost three dozen Republican-held seats at risk.
Dissatisfaction with Congress has crossed over into the governors’ races. Six Republican House members are trying to move up to governors’ mansions, and none has a clear path.
In three key states — New York, Ohio and Massachusetts — Democrats are not only predicted to take the governorship from Republicans but are also poised to win majorities that could affect the rest of the ticket.
Ohio, the swing state that handed Bush his second-term victory, has turned against the Republicans. There they now face the loss of the governorship and a Senate seat, and five GOP House districts also are in danger of switching. Republicans fear the loss of other statewide races and at least one house of the state legislature.
Other troublesome states for the Republicans include Pennsylvania, where a Senate seat and five House incumbents are at risk; and Indiana, where Democrats might pick up three House seats.
The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, taken over the weekend, gave Republicans hope that they can limit the electoral damage, although some other national polls continue to show a wider Democratic advantage. In the new poll, support for GOP candidates grew among married men and a quarter of the electorate who say they are getting ahead financially.
Opposition to the war has eased a bit, although the majority still says it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Almost a third say the war is the top issue determining their vote, and three-quarters say they will vote Democratic.
President George W. Bush’s approval ratings stand at 40 percent among all Americans and 43 percents among registered voters, a small but statistically significant increase in the past two weeks. About twice as many strongly disapprove of him as strongly approve. Independents favor Democrats by an 18-point margin, but that is less than the 28-point advantage Democrats enjoyed less than two weeks ago.
