Mutual mistrust is the hallmark of US-Iranian relations, fueled as they are by dogmatic views and carefully nurtured inaccuracies issuing from politicians in both countries. Some politicians on both sides have built their reputations on vilifying the other and they can be relied upon to do their utmost to prevent any constructive dialogue whatsoever.
But just when relations have plunged to new lows over Iran’s nuclear plans, with Washington as well as the Europeans accusing Tehran of harboring military ambitions (not to mention President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s provocatively bellicose views on Israel), there is suddenly the promise of a thaw in the air.
Iran and the US have tentatively agreed to talk about the situation in Iraq — doubly surprising because in addition to the intensity of the nuclear row and both sides entrenched positions, Tehran had earlier refused Washington’s requests for discussions on the subject. Appeals from Iraqi Shiites have apparently softened Iranian hearts — although other motives may have also played a part. The Iranians may hope that they can steer talks toward the nuclear dispute. At the moment that is unlikely. Washington is emphatic; talks will be about Iraq alone; the nuclear issue is now a matter completely and wholly for the UN.
This reconnection with the quieter paths of diplomacy, away from the megaphones, is a triumph of common sense even if only in relation to Iraq. Tehran and Washington are major players on the Iraqi stage; if they can reach a consensus, it is bound to have an effect. Iraq, moreover, needs every helping hand it can get.
The only concern is that Iraqi Sunnis must not feel that a plot is being hatched behind their backs. Welcome though the dialogue is, it will have to be expanded at some point fairly quickly to include someone the Sunnis trust, either the Arab League or one or more of Iraq’s Arab neighbors.
Caution has to be the watchword at this stage. With some US officials already expressing doubts as to Tehran’s real motives in agreeing to talks, the omens are not particularly propitious; there is even now a distinct sound akin to tom cats hissing at each before the fur flies. And is the top Iranian leadership united on this move? That is unknown. Certainly there will be those on both sides who do not want improved relations and who will do their best to sabotage any contacts. That aside, there is the possibility that this could simply turn into a dialogue of the deaf.
Nonetheless, if the two can talk on Iraq, they can talk on all their other problems. These talks could, and hopefully will, provide some confidence-building measures that the two countries need in order to set their relations on a saner and less emotional course. That would be a remarkable achievement.
Initially, however, the talks will be on Iraq and nothing else. As such, they are a small and uncertain step; there are many other boulders blocking the path to stable relations between the two countries. But, as the saying goes, great oaks from little acorns.... We can but hope.
