It is some 16 years since Europeans thrilled to the overthrow of Romanian Communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in a popular revolt costing over a thousand lives. The other old Soviet bloc Eastern European regimes had simply collapsed in the face of overwhelming public demonstrations to which they no longer had an answer. There was markedly less European enthusiasm when in 2004 Ukraine finally escaped the dead hand of its corrupt pro-Russian government and Viktor Yushchenko was sworn as a pro-Western president.
Now popular unrest has come to the streets of Minsk, the capital of Belarus after President Alexander Lukashenko won an apparently unlikely 82.6 percent of the vote. The election was certainly unfair in that opposition candidates, including the main challenger Alexander Milinkevich, were denied access to the media in the run-up to the vote and supporters were arrested. EU monitors condemned the process even before the ballot took place and later ruled that voting too was rigged.
At its summit last week the EU duly imposed further sanctions on Belarus. There is however clearly little appetite among most EU countries, excepting neighboring Poland, for the sponsorship of a full-fledged popular revolt. The relatively small number of opposition demonstrators who have braved the icy streets of Minsk to protest the result are therefore likely to find themselves ignored.
It is not just that the old communist regime has the country pretty well tied up. The great shadow of Moscow looms over Belarus. In the past Lukashenko has speculated his country might rejoin Russia, a proposition reportedly opposed by close colleagues who value the extra political clout statehood has given them. The reality is however that a truly independent Belarus, even one trying to avoid pursuing an avowedly pro-Western policy, would be far more vulnerable to Russian pressure than the Ukraine, where there is a stronger national identity and culture.
The EU will have noted the speed with which Russian President Vladimir Putin moved to welcome Lukashenko’s re-election. Brussels has concerns enough about the return of Kremlin autocracy to Russia, without provoking a new challenge to Moscow. European and US businessmen want to carry on taking advantage of the immense financial opportunities in Russia even while the Kremlin edges back to its old dictatorial habits. By contrast, Belarus’ unreformed command economy offers no significant moneymaking opportunities. Opposition politicians, of sometimes-dubious standing, will receive encouragement and even perhaps cash, but the West is not going to risk its Russian investments by giving unstinting backing to them. This policy could only be upset if the Lukashenko regime crumbled in the face of a massive popular uprising. Because of what is at stake elsewhere, most Western leaders will be hoping such a thing does not happen. Therefore the Minsk idealists currently confronting harsh police and weather may not realize it, but they are out by themselves on a dangerous limb.
