ROME, 10 April 2006 - As I write, Italians are voting in what has been described as the contest between the alligator and the panda. Most commentators expect that the alligator - Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's flamboyant prime minister - will be ousted from power and replaced with the dull and plodding Prodi. All the signs point that way, but in politics a surprise is always possible.
Really this election is about Berlusconi. The economics, the politics, the issues are but background for what is really a vote on this caricature of a man. It is hard to see him as a statesman; he is rarely portrayed that way even by those who support him. This is a cartoon character, an outrageous character who even the novelist in me could not have penciled. Who could have imagined that the prime minister of a member state of the G-8 could say that in China they boil babies? Or that the same prime minister would refer to those who will not vote for him as "coglioni", literally testicles but slang, the English equivalent being variously translated as assholes, pricks or dickheads in the Anglo-Saxon media. Not exactly the language of a statesman. But then Berlusconi is a contradiction. He is a billionaire who wants to be known as "il cavaliere" - the knight - and yet is eager to show that he is a man of the people by using gutter talk such as "coglioni". Late at night when sleep eludes him, what does he do? He calls sex lines and conducts a straw poll among the girls selling sex talk. Who would you vote for my dear? Apparently most of the young ladies he spoke to would vote for him - but what does this tell us about this man's grasp on reality?
More than anything, what strikes me about him is that he has created a fantasy about himself and he now believes it to be real. He is in love with the image he has created of himself. Who else would publish a 161-page glossy magazine filled with pictures of himself posing next to world leaders, pop stars, sportsmen and the like, always smiling, always perfectly tanned, the knight in shining armor, the Latin lover, publish millions of copies to be delivered to every household in the land and call it "The Real Story of Italy"? Either the man has a sense of humor or he seriously believes that people are stupid enough to be taken in by this crude image-making exercise. For he is exceedingly image-conscious, a man who is vain enough to have gone under the surgeon's knife for a nip and tuck. Not for him the elderly statesman image, oh no, not nearly virile enough!
All this makes him a cartoon character, but that would paint him as harmless and Berlusconi is anything but harmless. This is a man who has been phenomenally successful at creating power and then using this power to ruthlessly promote his self-interest. Silvio Berlusconi has ruled Italy over the last five years with little distinction between national interest and personal interest, or more precisely with the belief that his personal interest supersedes the national interest. No line has been too far to cross. Laws could be rewritten, even the constitution could be rewritten, if it served his ends. And yet, despite all this power, despite controlling the media and being able to tilt the playing field a good 45 degrees in his favor, he faces the prospect of being kicked out of power.
The last polls were published 14 days ago as Italian law imposes a poll blackout in the last 14 days of an election campaign. Those polls gave Prodi's centre-left alliance a 3-5 percent lead, but also showed that 24 percent of the populace is undecided. Berlusconi has gone after those undecided votes with something approaching desperation, almost making it up as he goes along. He has in the last few days promised to remove council taxes on first homes - a promise made in true gamesmanship fashion in the closing minute of the last TV debate with Prodi, Berlusconi looking straight at the camera and knowing Prodi would not have the chance to counter it. He has also promised to include more women in his government, going so far as to state that he would appoint a woman deputy prime minister - women making up a disproportionately large share of the undecided vote. The alligator is certainly putting up a fight. For a while it looked like he was scoring some points, his party - Forza Italia - having used the usual tactic of the right to destabilize the left: Raise the specter of taxes. And the left dropped the ball enough for this to take ground. It seems fairly evident that voting into power Prodi's left-wing alliance will lead to an increase in taxes; he has for one thing pledged to reintroduce inheritance tax. This former economics professor and president of the European Commission is no white savior for Italy. As one commentator put it, Italy has a choice between a corrupt government and an incompetent government. To be fair to Prodi, even with the best will in the world, he will face insurmountable challenges if he is elected. He heads an unholy alliance of 13 parties that include such unlikely bedmates as communists and devout Catholics. It would be hard enough to steer a clear course with a strong majority but changes in the Italian voting system mean that the new prime minister will almost certainly have a reduced majority. There is also the poor state of the Italian economy. The economy faces serious woes: stagnant growth, falling competitiveness, and a mounting budget deficit, to name but a few. Whoever wins this election; it is unlikely that the average Italian will see an improvement in his or her lot over the next five years. In fact it seems unlikely that the next government will last the full five years; it is much more likely that we will see a return of instability that has been the bane of postwar Italian politics.
As the election campaign has drawn to an end, Berlusconi has begun to look more vulnerable. This has led him to cry foul in every which way he can, from calling anyone who opposes him a communist, to claiming there are conspiracies against him, to suggesting the voting may be rigged and that UN inspectors should be present. He is right to feel that there is a powerful movement against him. Berlusconi is someone who inspires strong emotions. The campaign against him has been vociferous and rather vicious, particularly outside Italy. For instance, The Economist - the British magazine - has him on its front cover this week with the headline: "Basta. It's time for Italy to sack Berlusconi". There are websites devoted to ousting him or deriding him, as well as a polemical film about him called the Alligator that is currently showing in Italian cinemas.
But if he is voted out, I for one will be glad. If someone with Berlusconi's wealth, power and media empire can be kicked out of office then this will go some way toward restoring my faith in democracy. But, more importantly, I don't trust Berlusconi in relation to Islam. He once stated that the West "should be confident of the superiority of our civilization." He later apologized for the offense caused by the remark, but that is not the same as taking it back. I strongly suspect that he genuinely believes himself to come from a superior civilization.
As far as I am concerned, he is not fit for office. I just hope enough Italian voters will see it that way too. [email protected])
