SRI Lanka last night seemed to be moving closer to a resumption of full-scale conflict between the Tamil rebels and government forces. The suicide bombing at the Defense Ministry in Colombo seriously injured the Sri Lankan Army Chief Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka and killed eight others. The government airstrikes on suspected Tamil Tiger camps do not look like the claimed limited response. Indeed, according to a despairing Norwegian observer whose country has been brokering peace talks since December 2002, the peace process had already virtually collapsed.
In the last fortnight, more than 50 government troops have been killed in Tamil Tiger attacks.
Hard-line Sinhalese politicians and military men had always believed that peace negotiations based around power sharing and an autonomous region in the Tamil-speaking north of the island, were only a cover for the Tigers to regroup. Recent events seem to justify their skepticism. There has, however, been an important change in the perception of the conflict both internationally and regionally. Until 2002, the government in Colombo was seen as being more responsible for perpetuating a bloody conflict in which neither side was able to win a conclusive victory. After the 2004 tsunami, the appalling failure of the Sri Lankan authorities to dispense international aid quickly to stricken Tamil as well as Sinhalese regions, reinforced the view that the government was pursuing a bigoted and highly biased policy.
Two years on, views have changed. The Tamil rebels have fought amongst each other and dealt ruthlessly with anyone in the community who had the temerity to question their aggressive policies. Though the Norwegian peacemakers have not admitted it publicly, privately some have said that most, though not all the obstruction in the peace process has come from the Tamil side. It has been suggested that the Tamil Tigers have established a gangster-style regime enforced by terror among their own people. The leaders of the rebellion would lose power and influence were there to be a real peace.
The decision in January by the new Canadian government to declare the Tigers a terrorist organization was significant because, like the Norwegians, the Canadians have a record of trying to play the honest broker in international conflicts. There are signs that India too is beginning to consider moving toward supporting the government in Colombo. New Delhi will take cognizance of the views of people in Tamil Nadu where support for the rebels once was strong. If India’s Tamils are beginning to despair of the failure of Sri Lanka’s Tamils to reach a just and lasting settlement with the government in Colombo, then the logistical and support position of the Tigers could begin to be undermined.
When all is said and done, 60,000 people have died in this terrible conflict. The international community has worked hard to find a settlement and, as it looks now, it is the Tamil Tiger leadership that has done most to disrupt it.
