The race to replace United Nations’ top diplomat, Kofi Annan, by the end of this year is on with six people on the starting blocks. But whether all six will be allowed to run is still a matter to be decided.
They have to first pass scrutiny of the Big Five, the veto-wielding Security Council members United States, China, Russia, France and Britain, and then after the nominations have been confirmed the winner would still have to be ratified by the 191-member General Assembly.
Till India threw the hat into the ring by announcing its candidate, the five other nominees, who had already begun canvassing for support for their candidates, had an equal measure of acceptance. With UN Undersecretary-General Shashi Tharoor being officially nominated by India the race has suddenly become interesting.
But is India queering the pitch by joining the fray? Has it given up its hopes of joining the proposed expanded Security Council with this late entry? Only the mandarins in the South Block and the politicians will be able to tell. For the move to field Tharoor smacks of political expediency of hedging their bets of gaining at least one of the two prizes they are aiming for.
New Delhi said it strongly supported the principle of regional rotation under which the next secretary-general should be from Asia. “India believes that a prospective UN secretary-general should have impeccable credentials, be acceptable to broadest possible membership of the UN and have a strong commitment to the reform of the UN and the interests of the developing countries. It is in this framework that India has decided to announce the candidature of Mr. Shashi Tharoor,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Navtej Sarna had said.
The decision also seems to be a last-minute change of heart, for till late May India had been promising to look favorably at the nominees from Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Of the six nominees, five are from Asia with the sixth being Latvian President Vike Frieberga. On the heels of India’s announcement Thailand said it was confident that its candidate Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, a 48-year-old academic-turned politician, was still the best person for the job.
Sathirathai, who has strong support from the ASEAN grouping, is just one of the five Asian heavyweights competing for the job. Other contenders are Tharoor, South Korea’s Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, Sri Lanka diplomat Jayantha Dhanapala and East Timor’s Foreign Minister and Nobel Peace Prize winner Jose Ramos-Horta.
Apart from these six there could be others who could pitch in, especially with Singapore’s former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong having indicated that he could run, and thus turning the race on its head.
Though all of the candidates are heavies in their own right, Tharoor’s nearly quarter of a century association with the world body, and his proximity to the current incumbent Annan may give him the edge.
Tharoor, who has said that he will not be a representative of just a billion people but of the people of the world, has been making the rounds of New Delhi, including meeting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, to drum up support. He has even visited China on his own to feel out their response.
A career diplomat and an acclaimed novelist and columnist, Tharoor is adept at wearing many hats. He said, following his nomination, that his chances are “as good and as bad as anyone else’s”. But does he really stand a chance?
That he has a fair shot at the seat must have been the reason for the Indian political hierarchy to throw their support behind him. That he studied at Tuft’s University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, has a doctorate and two masters degrees and is considered among the most versatile UN officials, will weigh in his favor.
But there are factors that could sway others away from Tharoor. His relative youth for example could prove to be a hindrance. Also his proximity to Annan could prove to be double edged, especially after the secretary-general and his office were discredited by the Iraq food-for-oil scam.
Tharoor’s nomination could run into trouble from one of the Permanent-5 countries — China. Already, Pakistan has sharply reacted to this nomination, saying that it would also enter its own candidate. Pakistan, apart from pushing China away from Tharoor, would also be swinging its diplomatic clout in defeating India’s designs.
China, which had called for an Asian to hold the top spot after Annan’s retirement after it took over the Security Council presidency in April, too would prefer any Asian other than an Indian.
Though the Sino-Indian ties are warming, China’s reception to the announcement was cool.
The control the Big Five wield in the Security Council could work against Tharoor. Apart from the likely Chinese resistance, the United States could prove a stumbling block. Despite being blind-sided by this announcement, the US has said that it has no reservation about Tharoor’s nomination. This does not sound like a ringing endorsement. About the other three, the possibilities are that the United Kingdom will follow the US lead, while Russia and France have indicated that they would back Tharoor.
This aside, the sheer size of India could prove detrimental to Tharoor’s chance. As has been the convention, none of the Big Five has nominated a candidate till date, the secretaries-general have been picked from smaller countries — Norway (Lie), Sweden (Hammarskjold), Myanmar (U Thant), Austria (Waldheim), Peru (de Cuellar), Egypt (Boutros-Ghali), and Ghana (Annan). And this convention could well continue.
In addition, India would have to carry the nonaligned nations of the Third World. Here itself, India runs into a major wall, with the NAM states chary of India’s recent shift toward the US in a bid to set up a “strategic partnership”. All in all a tough proposition.
Amid all this comes India’s bid to enter the big leagues in the UN. There has been no tradition of a country fielding its candidate for the top UN post and permanent membership of the Security Council. With the Big Five seemingly reluctant to allow its control to be whittled, the proposed reforms and expansion have already hit rough weather.
It is in this context that the Group of Four (Brazil, Germany, India and Japan), all vying for a place in the expanded Security Council, have come up with the formula of placating the incumbents.
They have proposed that the new members would forgo the veto power bestowed on the current members for at least 15 years. The new offer by these four countries is aimed at democratization of the world body. The offer also calls for the addition of six permanent and four nonpermanent members to the existing strength of the Security Council.
Though India claims that these two moves are mutually exclusive, its regional rivals and allies are of the view that New Delhi is asking for too much. And surely some will be mobilizing to defeat its aspirations.
Whether it is going to be a double jeopardy or double delight for India will only be known as the year progresses. But whoever takes over at the helm of the world body will have his work cut out for him. If the proposed reforms go through then there is still hope for the organization.
For till now it has been functioning on the alliterative cadence of censers, censors and censure — the censer of the people’s prayers, the censors in the Big Five and the censure of the world.
